No signs yet of next El Nino, says BMG
No signs yet of next El Nino, says BMG
Fitri Wulandari, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The National Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) said on
Saturday that it had yet to see any signs that El Nino, the
weather phenomenon known to cause devastating floods and
droughts, will return to the country this year.
Achmad Zakir, chief of BMG's forecast and service subdivision,
said his office had not recorded warmer water in the eastern part
of the Pacific Ocean, which is one of the early signs of El Nino.
"For Indonesia, we have observed that the sea surface
temperature is rising and remains unstable. It is too early to
say, however, whether El Nino is coming or not," he said.
However, Achmad did not rule out the possible return of El
Nino.
He said heavy downpours, caused by the warming of the sea
surface, were also early signs of El Nino.
Although most parts of Indonesia have been hit by torrential
rain in recent weeks, causing floods and landslides in some
areas, Achmad said it was not a sign that El Nino will return.
He said the amount of rainfall was returning to normal.
Achmad further said El Nino would come when air pressure in
Darwin, Australia, is recorded to be higher than in Tahiti,
located at the other end of the Pacific Ocean. "We haven't
detected this either," he said.
He said the BMG would continue to closely monitor any sign of
the weather phenomenon. "We will be able to predict the possible
return of El Nino in March at the very latest," Achmad said.
U.S. forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) released a report on Thursday, which
claimed that El Nino is likely to return in the spring of this
year.
Unable to say if the impending El Nino will be as severe as in
1997, they warned tropical Pacific countries, including
Indonesia, to be alert against scorching drought.
"Indonesia is likely to realize some relief from torrential
rains," said Vernon Kousky, a climate specialist with the NOAA.
El Nino, meaning boy in Spanish, is an abnormal warming of
waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It changes global winds and
rain patterns, and usually happens once every two to seven years,
causing storms, droughts, floods and crop failures.
The last El Nino, which lasted from 1997 to 1998, was
considered extreme as it caused prolonged droughts in Australia,
Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as floods in Peru and
Ecuador.
At least 300,000 hectares of forest in Sumatra and Kalimantan
caught fire and this was partly attributed to El Nino. The fires
resulted in an environmental disaster that sent smoky haze to
neighboring countries, in particular Malaysia.
Crop failures, stemming from El Nino in 1997, prompted a food
crisis in many parts of Indonesia, including Irian Jaya, where
around 300 locals in remote districts of Jayawijaya and Merauke
died from starvation.