No major changes expected after elections

No major changes expected after elections

Dadan Wijaksana, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The investment community hopes the general election will
result in a winning party that can promote stability and
certainty, which is crucial to ensure the current pace of
economic reform, experts say.

The last thing the country needs is an abrupt change in terms
of policy, as it could shake investors' confidence and make the
market nervous, Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan said on
Tuesday.

Citigroup is one of the leading global investment banks
operating in the country that manages huge amount of investments
on behalf of domestic and international investors.

"The business sector, based on what we've garnered from our
clients, puts stability on top of everything, which then brings
certainty. It means businesses can continue, plus improvements
here and there along the way -- but gradually, not drastically,"
Anton told The Jakarta Post.

A gradual change should give clear direction as to where the
economy, which has just started to recover from the late 1990s
economic crisis, was moving and also give more predictability to
doing businesses here, Anton added.

A stock analyst at a local securities firm, who asked for
anonymity, agreed. He said that, judging from the political map,
it was likely that whoever won the elections would bring about
stability and certainty.

"Currently, at least based on various surveys, those who have
a fair chance of winning the elections is not far from the top
five parties, those that did well in the 1999 elections.

"So, in order to maintain the status quo, I don't think there
will be major changes proposed by those parties, which would suit
the market well," he said.

As voting day for legislative seats is scheduled for April 5,
the country is entering the second round of indoor campaigns.

Concerns that the campaigns could turn violent have so far
proved unfounded.

The decline in the Jakarta Stock Composite Index in the past
week was caused more by the gloomy global sentiment, following
the terrorist attacks in Madrid.

The two experts agreed that although some parties planned
drastic changes to the country's economy, their slim chance of
winning the elections meant it was unlikely their programs would
see the light of day.

Anton cited as examples some Islamic-based parties that were
calling for a sharia economy, which would have a massive impact
on Indonesia's economy.

"But even if they unite and form a coalition, which many
political observers find highly unlikely, I still doubt they
could win the elections," he said.

The United Development Party (PPP), the Reform Star Party
(PBR), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Crescent Star
Party (PBB) are among those that have include sharia in their
platforms, including in their respective economic programs.