No Clear Winner in Exit Polls: Could Anti-Netanyahu Parties Join Forces with Arab Parties?

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition is projected to lose Tuesday’s (27 October 2026) election. Exit polls show its seat tally falling sharply from the 68-seat majority it currently holds in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. However, anti-Netanyahu opposition parties also appear to have no easy path to forming an alternative government unless their leading figures break campaign promises not to work with Arab-majority factions.

Exit polls from the three main media networks showed the pro-Netanyahu bloc winning only 50 or 51 seats in the next Knesset. Opposition parties led by Jewish factions were projected to secure 51 or 52 seats. Neither bloc would reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member parliament.

The remaining 18 seats in the Channel 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13 exit polls went to two parties with Arab backgrounds. This would be a record result for the Joint List and Ra’am, which currently hold just ten Knesset seats. The surge in support for the two parties appears to have been fuelled by campaigning from Netanyahu’s Likud and the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, which have often portrayed them as a threat to national security, according to The Times of Israel.

The Arab-background parties have also rejected giving Netanyahu another term. This points to an outright 70-seat majority in the Knesset opposed to the prime minister. Nevertheless, three of the four Jewish-background opposition parties have explicitly ruled out joining a coalition with Arab-majority parties. If they keep that campaign promise, their coalition options would be closed off.

Party leaders across the political spectrum urged supporters to await the official results. The count is due to begin on Tuesday evening and continue into Wednesday, with the full tally expected to be completed by Friday.

All three major media networks placed Netanyahu’s Likud in first place, with 24 or 25 seats, down from its current 32. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, and his Yashar party were projected to come second with 21 to 23 seats.