No change likely in RI politics: Expert
No change likely in RI politics: Expert
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesian politics will remain static for the foreseeable future, according to a leading Indonesia watcher.
Dr. R. William Liddle of Ohio State University said in an interview with The Jakarta Post over the weekend that no significant change was imminent in the pattern of relationships between Indonesian political institutions over the coming one to two decades.
He said the Armed Forces (ABRI) would remain the dominant political force, while other groups, including the Moslem community, would remain on the sidelines.
Liddle, who was here on a ten-day visit in preparation for a major seminar on Islam in Indonesia in May, said that the political scene would continue to be characterized by what he called "inside the beltway" activities. He left Jakarta for the United States yesterday.
Interest groups are more likely to play politics "inside the bureaucracy", instead of choosing to stand on opposite sides, he said.
"What exist here, mostly, are (groups of people) 'inside the beltway';...in politics within the (structures of) the state," he said.
"Political forces in the society will not yet play important roles."
Liddle was speaking of the political situation in general and Moslems' political roles in particular. He concluded that ABRI and the bureaucracy, as the dominant power centers, would continue to have the greater say in shaping the country's political scene.
Even if there are some changes or shifts within ABRI, as some analysts believe, "they will not influence" the situation, Liddle said.
Liddle said that the relationship between Moslems and the government had improved, and had been fostered by the establishment of the powerful Indonesian Association of Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI) in 1991 and the issuance of government policies which benefit Moslems.
However, this new amicability may not be as effective a vehicle for Moslems' political aspirations as many people believe, he said.
"What Moslem politics will look like over the next few years is not yet clear," he said, adding that ICMI may have satisfied the political aspirations of a handful of people, but certainly not the majority of Moslems.
"We haven't actually seen anything (in the way of an ICMI contribution to Moslems' political role in society)," he said. "Does ICMI represent Moslems' aspirations? I don't think so."
He agreed that the establishment of ICMI, together with other seemingly Islamic government policies, was merely a necessary political tool of those in power.
However, its establishment coincided with a push from the "lower layers of society" for greater political influence, he said.
The establishment of ICMI, which has been accused of being too politically connected and elitist, was a "political move by the government" which accidentally met a Moslem demand for a greater say in politics, he said.
Moslems' excitement over having a new political forum and improved relations with the government, however, is rapidly subsiding, according to Liddle.
"Moslems are beginning to realize that ICMI does not really represent their political aspirations. ICMI is overly dominated by bureaucrats who have never even been involved in any Islamic movement," he said.
Liddle also suggested that political organizations, such as Golkar, would be more attractive to Moslem supporters if they dealt with issues of contemporary relevance such as democratization and justice, instead of focusing on mere "symbols of Islam".
"Moslem business entrepreneurs, for instance, would be more interested in issues like transparent economic policies," he said.
Liddle refused to speculate on the hot issue of the national leadership succession, saying only that he hadn't "seen any more important force in society" outside of the current administration.
"What will Indonesia's political situation look like in another three or four years? I think Pak Harto (President Soeharto) will retain his health," he said.
"If Pak Harto is healthy, then the succession will not be a problem," he said. (swe)