No change likely in RI politics: Expert
No change likely in RI politics: Expert
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesian politics will remain static for the
foreseeable future, according to a leading Indonesia watcher.
Dr. R. William Liddle of Ohio State University said in an
interview with The Jakarta Post over the weekend that no
significant change was imminent in the pattern of relationships
between Indonesian political institutions over the coming one to
two decades.
He said the Armed Forces (ABRI) would remain the dominant
political force, while other groups, including the Moslem
community, would remain on the sidelines.
Liddle, who was here on a ten-day visit in preparation for a
major seminar on Islam in Indonesia in May, said that the
political scene would continue to be characterized by what he
called "inside the beltway" activities. He left Jakarta for the
United States yesterday.
Interest groups are more likely to play politics "inside the
bureaucracy", instead of choosing to stand on opposite sides, he
said.
"What exist here, mostly, are (groups of people) 'inside the
beltway';...in politics within the (structures of) the state," he
said.
"Political forces in the society will not yet play important
roles."
Liddle was speaking of the political situation in general and
Moslems' political roles in particular. He concluded that ABRI
and the bureaucracy, as the dominant power centers, would
continue to have the greater say in shaping the country's
political scene.
Even if there are some changes or shifts within ABRI, as some
analysts believe, "they will not influence" the situation, Liddle
said.
Liddle said that the relationship between Moslems and the
government had improved, and had been fostered by the
establishment of the powerful Indonesian Association of Moslem
Intellectuals (ICMI) in 1991 and the issuance of government
policies which benefit Moslems.
However, this new amicability may not be as effective a
vehicle for Moslems' political aspirations as many people
believe, he said.
"What Moslem politics will look like over the next few years
is not yet clear," he said, adding that ICMI may have satisfied
the political aspirations of a handful of people, but certainly
not the majority of Moslems.
"We haven't actually seen anything (in the way of an ICMI
contribution to Moslems' political role in society)," he said.
"Does ICMI represent Moslems' aspirations? I don't think so."
He agreed that the establishment of ICMI, together with other
seemingly Islamic government policies, was merely a necessary
political tool of those in power.
However, its establishment coincided with a push from the
"lower layers of society" for greater political influence, he
said.
The establishment of ICMI, which has been accused of being too
politically connected and elitist, was a "political move by the
government" which accidentally met a Moslem demand for a greater
say in politics, he said.
Moslems' excitement over having a new political forum and
improved relations with the government, however, is rapidly
subsiding, according to Liddle.
"Moslems are beginning to realize that ICMI does not really
represent their political aspirations. ICMI is overly dominated
by bureaucrats who have never even been involved in any Islamic
movement," he said.
Liddle also suggested that political organizations, such as
Golkar, would be more attractive to Moslem supporters if they
dealt with issues of contemporary relevance such as
democratization and justice, instead of focusing on mere "symbols
of Islam".
"Moslem business entrepreneurs, for instance, would be more
interested in issues like transparent economic policies," he
said.
Liddle refused to speculate on the hot issue of the national
leadership succession, saying only that he hadn't "seen any more
important force in society" outside of the current
administration.
"What will Indonesia's political situation look like in
another three or four years? I think Pak Harto (President
Soeharto) will retain his health," he said.
"If Pak Harto is healthy, then the succession will not be a
problem," he said. (swe)