Next Week's Sentiment: Markets Nervously Await Central Bank Decisions

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global and domestic financial markets next week will closely monitor a series of important economic data releases and interest rate decisions from various major central banks.

This array of data will serve as a crucial indicator for market participants to gauge the direction of monetary policy and the resilience of each country’s economy.

This is becoming increasingly relevant amid the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are overshadowing inflation prospects through fluctuations in energy commodity prices, as well as the ongoing strengthening trend of the US dollar that continues to pressure emerging market currencies.

Here is a detailed breakdown of the economic agenda scheduled for release throughout next week.

People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Interest Rate Decision

Kicking off the week, China’s monetary authority is scheduled to release its benchmark interest rate decision, or Loan Prime Rate (LPR), on 20 April 2026. In the previous March period, the PBoC decided to maintain the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% for the tenth consecutive month.

This decision reflects the Chinese government’s caution, which currently prioritises macroeconomic stability over injecting aggressive stimulus. Market participants expect the PBoC to continue holding interest rates steady.

This is underpinned by high global oil prices and tensions in the Middle East that are clouding future inflation prospects.

On the other hand, China’s lower growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026 also reduces the urgency for broad monetary easing, given ongoing structural challenges from the weakening property sector and subdued domestic consumer sentiment.

US Retail Sales

From the United States, the March retail sales data release is scheduled for announcement on 21 April 2026. This indicator is highly anticipated as it represents the strength of consumer purchasing power, which is the main driver of the US economy.

Based on the previous release, February 2026 monthly retail sales (month-over-month/MoM) recorded a 0.6% increase. This figure reversed the 0.1% contraction in January and exceeded market projections of 0.5%.

This monthly performance is the strongest in the last seven months, supported by increases in shopping centres (3%), personal care and health stores (2.3%), and clothing (2%).

The control group sales—which excludes food services, car dealers, building materials, and petrol stations for GDP calculation—also grew by 0.5%.

On a yearly basis (year-on-year/YoY), February retail sales grew 3.7%, confirming that US consumer spending remains fairly resilient amid high interest rates.

For the March data release, market consensus projects monthly sales to continue the growth trend above 1%. This data will be analysed in depth as an additional clue for the Federal Reserve in determining the roadmap for adjusting its benchmark interest rate.

Japan’s Trade Balance and Export-Import Performance

On the same day, Japan is scheduled to release March trade balance data along with details of export and import performance on 21 April 2026. Based on February data records, Japan successfully posted a surplus beyond market expectations of JPY 57.3 billion.

Last month’s export performance experienced a significant slowdown in growth to 4.2%, primarily weighed down by declining demand from major trading partners such as China and the United States, as well as pressure from US tariff policy adjustments on various Japanese products.

Conversely, Japan’s imports recorded an expansion of 10.2%, driven by solid domestic demand following the implementation of the government stimulus package.

Market participants will monitor this latest data release to see if the trade balance can hold in surplus territory and to what extent the export sector is affected by the global activity slowdown.

Bank Indonesia (BI Rate) Interest Rate Decision

Domestically, the most anticipated agenda for market participants is the announcement of the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI) results on 22 April 2026. In the previous month’s meeting, BI decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, or BI Rate, at 4.75%.

This step aligns with the central bank’s main focus on mitigating global spillover effects and maintaining rupiah exchange rate stability. The rupiah previously faced pressure, reaching Rp16,985 per US dollar in mid-March, triggered by global risk aversion sentiment.

BI will also consider the dynamics of domestic inflation rate, which rose to 4.76% year-on-year in February. Given the solid Q4 2025 economic growth realisation at 5.39%, Bank Indonesia is deemed to still have adequate policy room to manage monetary stability.

Indonesia’s Broad Money Supply (M2) Position

Complementing the domestic macroeconomic data releases, Bank Indonesia is also projected to release updates on economic liquidity or broad money supply (M2) next week.

As historical context, economic liquidity in February 2026 showed annual growth of 8.7%, reaching Rp10,089.9 trillion.

This figure is slightly slower compared to January’s achievement, which reached 10% growth. The February M2 expansion was mainly driven by narrow money supply (M1) growth of 14.4% year-on-year, as well as quasi-money growth of 3.1%.

Additionally, this growth rate was influenced by net claims on the central government, which surged 25.6% year-on-year, accompanied by steady bank credit disbursement.