Next Week's Sentiment: Markets Anxious Awaiting Key Announcements
The Indonesian financial market is set to face a heavy agenda next week, from 3–9 August 2026. Domestically, attention is focused on July inflation, second-quarter economic growth, and foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, global sentiment will be influenced by US manufacturing and labour data, as well as manufacturing, trade, and inflation activity in China. This series of data has the potential to determine the direction of the US Dollar, the Ruppendiah, commodity prices, and the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG).
The start of the week will be dominated by Indonesian inflation data and China-US manufacturing activity. Focus will then shift to Indonesia’s GDP and the US services sector, before peaking on Friday with China’s trade data, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves, and US labour reports. All schedules below have been converted to Western Indonesia Time (WIB).
Indonesia July 2026 Inflation
Indonesia will announce July inflation on Monday (3/8/2026) at 11:00 WIB. A CNBC Indonesia poll estimates inflation at 0.11% monthly and 3.2% annually, while core inflation is projected to rise slightly to 2.77%. In June, inflation reached 0.44% monthly and 3.34% annually, with core inflation rising to 2.76%, the highest in 38 months. July price pressures are expected to ease due to harvests of several food commodities and a decrease in non-subsidised fuel prices, although rice prices, education costs, and the impact of Rupiah weakness remain critical to monitor. The distinction between headline and core inflation will be a primary focus; a decline in inflation driven solely by volatile food prices may not signify that price pressures have truly vanished. An increase in core inflation could indicate that production costs and currency weakness are being passed on to consumers. Stabilising inflation within Bank Indonesia’s target of 2.5% ± 1% could maintain hopes for monetary easing, potentially benefiting the Rupiah and banking, property, automotive, and consumer stocks. Conversely, higher-than-expected core or food inflation could narrow the scope for interest rate cuts.
Indonesia June 2026 Trade Balance
In addition to inflation, Indonesia will release its June trade balance on Monday at 11:00 WIB. Consensus estimates suggest the deficit will narrow to US$0.79 billion from US$1.61 billion in May, while Trading Economics projections suggest a deficit of US$0.6 billion. The May deficit was the first since April 2020, with exports falling 5.73% annually and imports surging 22.16%, primarily due to rising oil and gas imports. Nevertheless, cumulatively, Indonesia recorded a surplus of US$4.03 billion from January to May 2026. Markets will assess whether the trade balance can return to a surplus or at least record a smaller deficit. An improved trade balance could support the Rupiah and Indonesia’s external resilience. Conversely, a wider-than-expected deficit risks adding pressure to the Rupiah, particularly if driven by weak commodity exports and surging oil and gas imports.
China Manufacturing PMI
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday at 08:45 WIB. The index is expected to dip slightly to 51.5 from 51.7, but remains in the expansion zone. In June, production and new orders continued to grow, although export orders weakened. Previous releases also showed new orders increasing for 13 consecutive months and employment growing again; however, weakening export demand and declining business optimism suggest China’s industrial recovery is not yet fully uniform. China’s data is vital for Indonesia as it reflects the demand outlook for coal, nickel, copper, and palm oil. Figures above expectations could support commodity stocks, while a drop below 50 risks weighing on sentiment.
US Manufacturing PMI
At 21:00 WIB, the US will release the July ISM Manufacturing PMI. Consensus expects the index to rise to 54 from 53.3. The previous release still showed expansion, but manufacturing labour contracted and price pressures remained high. Stronger activity and prices could drive the Dollar and US Treasury yields as markets assess whether the Fed needs to remain hawkish for longer. Markets will look not only at the headline index but also at components such as new orders, employment, and prices. Expansion supported by new orders will be viewed as healthier, whereas a surge in price components could reignite inflation concerns.
US Job Openings
The US will release the June JOLTs Job Openings on Tuesday (4/8/2026) at 21:00 WIB. Job openings are expected to fall to 7.25 million from 7.594 million, which was the highest level since May 2024. In May, hiring remained relatively stable around 5.2 million and quits were stable at 3.1 million, indicating labour demand remains high, though worker mobility has not changed significantly. This data serves as an early indicator of labour market conditions ahead of the non-farm payrolls report. A moderate decline could open room for looser Fed policy, but too sharp a decline risks sparking fears of an economic slowdown.
Indonesia Q2-2026 Economic Growth
Indonesia’s Q2 GDP will be released on Wednesday (5/8/2026) at 11:00 WIB. Trading Economics projects annual growth of 5.3%, following 5.61% growth in Q1. The previous quarter’s growth was supported by household consumption, government spending, and investment, while net trade contributions weakened. Markets will assess whether consumption and holiday activity can maintain growth above 5%. Household consumption remains key as the largest contributor to the economy. Beyond the headline figure, market participants will scrutinise the quality of growth, particularly the performance of manufacturing, trade, construction, and investment.