NEXT Indonesia assesses Indonesia's economy has potential to grow above 5 percent
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The NEXT Indonesia Center research institute assesses that Indonesia’s economy still has the potential to grow above 5 percent in 2026, despite being overshadowed by global uncertainties and differing projections from international institutions.
Director of the NEXT Indonesia Center, Herry Gunawan, stated that the resilience of the national economy is currently being tested amid increasingly sharp external pressures.
“This situation is a real test for the health of the national economy. We must look closely at whether our economy is truly still healthy or beginning to slide under external pressures,” said Herry in a statement received in Jakarta on Sunday.
He assessed that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened global uncertainty, particularly through their impact on energy prices and financial market volatility.
That condition, according to him, has also influenced the views of several international institutions on Indonesia’s economic growth prospects in 2026.
The World Bank, in its latest report, revised its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth this year from 5.0 percent to 4.7 percent.
That figure is lower than the actual economic growth realised in Indonesia in 2025, which reached 5.11 percent.
On the other hand, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that Indonesia’s economy could grow by 5.2 percent in 2026, or higher than the previous year’s achievement.
Herry said the difference in projections between the World Bank and the ADB demonstrates that assessments of Indonesia’s economic resilience remain highly dynamic.
“The difference in projection figures proves that global uncertainty factors greatly influence evaluations of Indonesia’s economic resilience in 2026,” he stated.
To read the economic direction more objectively, the NEXT Indonesia Center uses the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
“The CLI signal is the economic direction compass,” he said.
Based on March 2026 data, Indonesia’s CLI was recorded at 100.52, still above the 100 threshold, indicating the economy is in an expansion phase and has the potential to grow above the long-term trend.
According to Herry, that CLI position signals that the national economic fundamentals remain sufficiently intact amid global pressures, even more robust than several Asian countries whose indicators are below the 100 level.
“Our CLI data is still above the 100 level, meaning that fundamentally, Indonesia’s economy still has room to grow above its long-term average trend,” he said.
Nevertheless, he warned of a moderation in momentum evident from the slight decline in Indonesia’s CLI from 100.59 in February to 100.52 in March 2026.
He assessed that this weakening should be read as an early warning that the main engine of national economic growth, namely household consumption, is beginning to face pressure.
The NEXT Indonesia Center notes that household consumption remains the largest pillar of Indonesia’s economy, contributing around 53.9 percent to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025.
Therefore, Herry assessed that the government needs to maintain people’s purchasing power while strengthening the role of investment and exports so that economic growth does not rely solely on domestic consumption.
“We must not turn a blind eye to the moderation that is starting to occur in early 2026. If there is no adaptive policy intervention to maintain purchasing power, the growth target could miss the mark,” said Herry.
He added that strengthening adaptive fiscal policies and protection for the purchasing power of the lower strata of society are crucial so that this moderation phase does not develop into a deeper slowdown.