New security landscape threathens Asian forum
New security landscape threathens Asian forum
Martin Abbugao, Agence France-Presse, Bandar Seri Begawan
A new security landscape emerging after the Sept. 11 terror
attacks has sparked calls for a shakeup of Asia's top security
forum, which holds its annual meeting here next week.
In a region where two nuclear-armed rivals are in a tense
standoff and where terrorist groups lurk in the shadows, analysts
say the ASEAN Regional Forum, or ARF, should be more aggressive
in preventing conflict.
"ARF is being forced by current circumstances to reorient
itself to be responsive to crisis situations and not just a forum
for security dialog," Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) spokesman M.C. Abad told AFP.
"(However) this is difficult given the differences of
interests, threat perceptions and capabilities of ARF states."
Abad said crisis situations "are best handled directly" by the
concerned states.
Formed nearly a decade ago, ARF gathers the foreign ministers
of the 10 ASEAN countries and its 13 security allies, including
the United States, the European Union, Canada, Australia and
China, annually to discuss a wide array of security issues.
ASEAN, which groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
Vietnam, has always held the chair and is considered the driving
force of the organization.
ARF had served as a dialog forum for China and the United
States as well as South and North Korea, among others, but it has
no secretariat and no mandate.
Its discussions are not legally binding and the group is
encumbered by a consensus-driven decision-making process.
Analysts said the informal grouping must strengthen its structure
and rise above its reputation as a talking shop.
ASEAN's monopoly of the chairmanship is also under question,
with proposals by Australia for an "ARF troika", comprising also
a non-ASEAN member, to be in the driver's seat.
"Making the ARF a relevant and effective security institution
requires us to look beyond its current profile as merely a forum
for the exchange of views," the Singapore-based Institute of
Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) said in a paper released
ahead of the July 31 meeting.
The IDSS said that while the set-up has served the forum well
in the past, the emergence of more complicated security issues
after Sept. 11 has shown that the existing framework is
insufficient.
"At best, the ARF would be consigned to irrelevance. At worst,
the entire process might simply unravel towards an unwarranted
demise," the IDSS warned.
The task seems formidable as Asia is home to some of the
world's most fearsome military flashpoints.
The Himalayan state of Kashmir, where one million troops from
nuclear rivals India and Pakistan are facing off, is one of the
most dangerous.
Tensions also remain on the Korean Peninsula where North and
South Korea are technically at war.
The Taiwan Straits is another potential source of conflict
with China and Taiwan refusing to end their enduring dispute,
and six nations continue to jostle over potentially oil-rich
islands in the South China Sea.
Other dangers are the terrorist cells linked to suspected
Sept. 11 mastermind Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda networks which
continue to prowl the region.
IDSS has thrown up 12 recommendations for discussion in Brunei
aimed at revamping ARF, among them the establishment of
mechanisms for "preventive diplomacy".
Such mechanisms include the setting up of a Risk Reduction
Centre and a special ARF task force on terrorism which will map
out a regional blueprint for combatting the problem.
This could eventually lead to a stronger framework to resolve
conflicts, including the possible "preventive deployment" of
troops to avert their escalation.
ARF, currently dominated by foreign ministers, should also
include defence officials as participants and build closer ties
with the United Nations, IDSS said.