New Policies and Regulations in June: Can IHSG and Rupiah Recover?

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to rebound starting in June or early this week. Turning to the foreign exchange market, the rupiah closed last Friday (29 May 2026) in the red against the US dollar. This weakness extended the rupiah’s five consecutive trading days of correction. Despite this, the rupiah remained under pressure, closing at its lowest level in recent memory. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year state bonds (SBN) rose to 6.716% last Friday from 6.709% the previous day. The increase reflects selling pressure, causing bond prices to fall and yields to rise. In US equity markets, Wall Street closed higher on Monday or early Tuesday (Indonesian time). Stocks rose despite higher oil prices, with NVIDIA leading technology gains after launching a new PC chip. The broader market index rose 0.26% to 7,599.96, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.42% to 27,086.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 46.42 points (0.09%) to 51,078.88. All three indices hit intraday record highs before closing at all-time peaks. NVIDIA shares drove overall market gains, jumping over 6% following the launch of a new PC processor. Dell Technologies and HP Inc. rose more than 10% and 8% respectively, while Intel fell over 4%. Outside technology, energy was the only S&P 500 sector to close positive on Monday. Marathon Petroleum rose about 4%, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron up 2.8% and 1.9% respectively. Oil prices rose at the start of the trading week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged 5.93% to $92.54 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 4.24% to $94.98. In May, US crude recorded its steepest monthly decline since April 2025, falling nearly 17%. The movement followed reports from Iranian state media that negotiations with the US had halted and Tehran would fully close the Strait of Hormuz due to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. President Donald Trump said he did not care if peace talks with Iran ended. In a phone interview with CNBC’s Eamon Javers, Trump stated, “I really don’t care.” He also said he would ask Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the situation in Lebanon. Over the weekend, Netanyahu praised Israeli forces for capturing Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon as troops advanced into the area. Trump later wrote on Truth Social that he had a highly productive call with Netanyahu, adding that no troops would head to Beirut and those moving there had been redirected. In a separate post, Trump said talks with Iran were progressing rapidly. The US and Iran exchanged attacks over the weekend. US Central Command reported Monday that American forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting US troops in Kuwait. Last week, US and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the fragile ceasefire, which had previously boosted stock markets to record highs. However, Trump ended a White House Situation Room meeting without announcing a final decision on the deal. “The situation is two steps forward, one step back between the US and Iran, but clearly the market does not expect conflict escalation to return to the levels seen in the first two to three weeks of the war,” said Tim Holland of Orion to CNBC. “I think we are closer to resolving the conflict than relapsing into escalation,” he added. The chief investment officer predicted energy prices would remain below levels from four to six weeks ago. For prices to rise above that, the conflict would need to escalate beyond previous peak hostilities. As June 2026 begins, market participants will monitor key macroeconomic data releases both domestically and internationally. Additionally, several strategic domestic policy implementations and global geopolitical dynamics warrant attention. New Era for Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange: Single-Channel Exports, Tighter Dollar Controls Starting 1 June 2026, the government introduced new policies targeting foreign exchange management for exports and foreign exchange market stability. Notably, the establishment of PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI) to manage a single-export channel for three strategic commodities: coal, palm oil, and ferroalloy. These commodities accounted for $66.13 billion in exports in 2025, or 23.4% of total national exports. Economic Coordination Minister Airlangga Hartarto stated the policy aims to improve natural resource governance and strengthen export transaction oversight. “This ensures recorded export values reflect actual transactions,” he said. The government will conduct quarterly evaluations during the transition phase before full implementation on 1 January 2027. Simultaneously, the government implemented new regulations under Government Regulation No. 21 of 2026 on Foreign Exchange Earnings from Natural Resources (DHE SDA). Non-oil and gas exporters are now required to…