New leader brings new hopes

New leader brings new hopes

The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Indonesia's transition from a feudal-military entity has taken
its biggest leap so far with the peaceful electoral transfer of
power to a new President. Near-complete returns show that 122
million voters have handed victory to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a
former general and security minister in two administrations,
against the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, by the forecast
60-40 percent margin.

This has been a stunning progression from the Sukarno era's
trademark "guided democracy" and Soeharto's absolute rule. The
nation's achievement is more remarkable in that the leadership
change in Monday's presidential run-off was decided by popular
will.

It was untainted by voting fraud or intimidation. No known
violence was reported. If the much maligned machinery of state
could mount successfully and with little incident a logistical
exercise of such scale, doubters can take heart that Indonesia is
beginning to show what it is capable of. This is important.

The expression of democracy is a watershed event. But the
Indonesian people and their Southeast Asian neighbors would want
to see what the change in governing philosophy will mean in
practical terms -- jobs, social calm, more dependable courts and
law enforcement, and protection against organized terror and
sectarian violence. There is also the matter of territorial unity
against separatist tendencies.

The departing President deserves her people's appreciation for
getting some things right in her short tenure of three years. The
rupiah steadied on her watch. The people felt the difference in
the inflation rate coming down from the frightful 58 percent in
1998 to 5 percent last year.

It is little realized that Indonesia averaged 3.8 percent
growth from 2000 to last year. That made life more tolerable, a
contrast with the standard image of street riots and bombings the
outside world had of the country. She had oversight of free
parliamentary and presidential elections which ironically have
ended her public career, at least for now.

But the margin of forebearance permitted Megawati as the
daughter of the nationalist who expelled Indonesia's foreign
colonizers what may be denied Susilo. In part this could be
because he is associated with a military past of the famous "dual
function", which Indonesians want to put behind them, and he has
cast himself as a beneficiary of the nation's democratic
flowering.

So he can expect to be judged by the jobs and investment he
can deliver, on the one hand, and a more efficient and
accountable government on the other. A study shows that even at 4
percent growth, the projected figure, jobless numbers will rise
by 1.1 million a year against the 2.5 million persons who enter
the workforce.

Susilo's biggest immediate challenge is to make parliament a
partner in his crucial reform program. His Democratic Party is a
tiny presence, with 8 percent of the seats. He will need to get
the dominant Golkar and Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI-P) to work with him; otherwise he will lose
valuable time mounting a rearguard action. This will test his
leadership skills: How to make collaborators of political rivals.

Internationally, he can count on the active support of his
principal neighbors Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia in investing
in portfolio, manufacturing and tourism assets. The same level of
cooperation can be expected of them in the anti-terror campaign,
but joined by the United States and Australia.

The new President should make use of his mandate to stabilize
Indonesia further as a polity, such that conditions improve
sufficiently for other Asian and Western governments and
corporations to want to invest in its future.