New Indo-Pakistan tension puzzles analysts

New Indo-Pakistan tension puzzles analysts

Elizabeth Roche, Agence France-Presse/New Delhi

Two nights of mortars crashing into Indian Kashmir from Pakistan have Indian analysts puzzled over Pakistani intentions and the implications for a tentative peace process between the nuclear- armed nations.

India reported firing by Pakistani troops along the disputed borders in Kashmir on Tuesday and Thursday, accusing Islamabad of violating a 2003 cease-fire agreement that paved the way for resumption of talks last year.

Tensions soared despite government efforts to play down the shelling, analysts said.

Pakistan's military denied targeting Indian positions with mortars and small arms on late Wednesday and Friday.

"We have fully investigated this allegation and there is no truth in this. It is baseless and there has been no firing from Pakistan," Pakistan military spokesman Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan told AFP.

"We are respecting the cease-fire and would like to reassure that the cease-fire will be maintained," Sultan said.

The second round of firing on late Friday came after Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee said both sides had agreed not to heighten tensions.

It also came a day before a visit by India's army chief Gen. Nirmal Chandra Vij to Kashmir's border areas.

C. Uday Bhaskar, interim director of the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis, said the situation was "intriguing."

"The cease-fire has held for almost 15 months which is unprecedented," he said, noting that mortars have not been associated with "non-state actors" or the Islamic rebels battling Indian troops in Kashmir.

If the Pakistani army denies firing on Indian posts, "Is this a way of saying that mortars have got into the hands of militants? If so how? It also means the fire power index of the rebels has gone up," he said.

Another possibility was that some elements within the Pakistani army were acting "autonomously," Bhaskar said.

"The cease-fire along the border was a political agreement between the two countries and it is possible that these elements are acting in defiance of the political line taken by Pakistani government," he said.

"That both sides are acting with restraint is a positive sign. But it is a test of all the confidence-building measures in place between the two countries on the ground."

C. Raja Mohan, professor of international relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said India and Pakistan had so far downplayed the shelling.

"It is a matter of some concern but it is still manageable. There seems to be a willingness to manage the incident rather than let it escalate," he said.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is due to meet his Pakistani counterpart Shaukat Aziz on the sidelines of a regional summit in Dhaka on Feb. 6-7.

And Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh plans to visit Pakistan later next month.