New govt spur cautious hope for Cambodia

New govt spur cautious hope for Cambodia

By Stefan Smith

PHNOM PENH (AFP): There is a cautious optimism in Cambodia for
at least a peaceful new year with two of the last three leaders
of the genocidal Khmer Rouge emerging from the jungle to join a
new government forged after months of uncertainty.

Behind the fresh hopes lies undisputed strongman Hun Sen,
branded a dictator by his opponents, but hailed by supporters as
the necessary force to lead the troubled kingdom.

Hun Sen succeeded in rooting out the Khmer Rouge by gun or
promises of amnesty, and pushed his arch rival Prince Norodom
Ranariddh and his FUNCINPEC party into a new pact to earn him
democratic credentials and international recognition.

The year also saw the death in a jungle camp of Pol Pot, whose
brutal 1975-1979 ultra-Maoist regime transformed the country into
a vast killing fields leaving up to two million dead and
countless others scarred forever.

Along with the disgraced mastermind of the agrarian nightmare
went the last few fighters of the rebel group at the hands of Hun
Sen's government forces or the lure of an amnesty and a life
outside the jungle. For all there is little prospect they will be
brought to international justice.

Two of Pol Pot's aged fellow architects of the genocide --
ideologue Nuon Chea and nominal leader Khieu Samphan -- also gave
up their jungle lives on Christmas day in a deal with Hun Sen
that allows them to live as "simple citizens."

Only the brutal military chief Ta Mok remains at large in the
jungle -- and stunned analysts can no longer rule out his chances
of defecting.

Also set to be closely watched will be Hun Sen's new pact with
Prince Ranariddh, just 17 months after their last deal collapsed
in bloodshed on the streets of the capital.

While July's remarkably smooth elections -- dubbed free and
fair by international observers but bemoaned by the opposition as
rigged -- secured the UN seat for Hun Sen, disaccord in ASEAN
over allowing Cambodia's membership highlights a general
skepticism.

"There are too many poor variables at work here: a partnership
with a bloody track record, dubious deals with the Khmer Rouge,
unresolved cases of political violence and low investor
confidence," explained one diplomatic source.

"Hun Sen has an uphill battle and a long way to go before
Cambodia loses its reputation of being unpredictable and all too
often violent."

Even with the Khmer Rouge out of the jungles and on the
payroll, and a coalition deal pasting over the bitter hatred
between government leaders, Cambodia's ills remain far from
behind them.

Under the spotlight will be how Hun Sen and his one-time
communist Cambodian People's Party tolerate the sole opposition
figure and outspoken critic Sam Rainsy, isolated in dissent after
FUNCINPEC joined the coalition pact.

The large investors needed are still steering clear of a
country with a poor track record of stability, while the gloomy
financial outlook remains hostage to Asia's broader economic
woes.

There is a deep-seated culture of corruption, political
violence and impunity, and promises to divert spending from the
armed forces to the health and education sectors have yet to
translate to reality.

Aid workers continue to sound alarm bells over the country's
worsening AIDS epidemic, while environmental groups point out a
series of illegal logging deals that threaten to wipe out one of
Cambodia's richest resources.

Rights workers say allowing the brutal Khmer Rouge to defect
or die peaceful jungle deaths without justice is at the heart of
Cambodia's malaise.

"This is giving a strange message to young people: killing two
million people and then going unpunished for it," explained Youk
Chhang, director of Cambodia's Genocide Documentation Center.

"We have not seen the last of the Khmer Rouge: they wear the
same clothes as us now, they shop in the same markets but their
passport is the AK-47, which they can take out anytime."