New govt spur cautious hope for Cambodia

New govt spur cautious hope for Cambodia

By Stefan Smith

PHNOM PENH (AFP): There is a cautious optimism in Cambodia for at least a peaceful new year with two of the last three leaders of the genocidal Khmer Rouge emerging from the jungle to join a new government forged after months of uncertainty.

Behind the fresh hopes lies undisputed strongman Hun Sen, branded a dictator by his opponents, but hailed by supporters as the necessary force to lead the troubled kingdom.

Hun Sen succeeded in rooting out the Khmer Rouge by gun or promises of amnesty, and pushed his arch rival Prince Norodom Ranariddh and his FUNCINPEC party into a new pact to earn him democratic credentials and international recognition.

The year also saw the death in a jungle camp of Pol Pot, whose brutal 1975-1979 ultra-Maoist regime transformed the country into a vast killing fields leaving up to two million dead and countless others scarred forever.

Along with the disgraced mastermind of the agrarian nightmare went the last few fighters of the rebel group at the hands of Hun Sen's government forces or the lure of an amnesty and a life outside the jungle. For all there is little prospect they will be brought to international justice.

Two of Pol Pot's aged fellow architects of the genocide -- ideologue Nuon Chea and nominal leader Khieu Samphan -- also gave up their jungle lives on Christmas day in a deal with Hun Sen that allows them to live as "simple citizens."

Only the brutal military chief Ta Mok remains at large in the jungle -- and stunned analysts can no longer rule out his chances of defecting.

Also set to be closely watched will be Hun Sen's new pact with Prince Ranariddh, just 17 months after their last deal collapsed in bloodshed on the streets of the capital.

While July's remarkably smooth elections -- dubbed free and fair by international observers but bemoaned by the opposition as rigged -- secured the UN seat for Hun Sen, disaccord in ASEAN over allowing Cambodia's membership highlights a general skepticism.

"There are too many poor variables at work here: a partnership with a bloody track record, dubious deals with the Khmer Rouge, unresolved cases of political violence and low investor confidence," explained one diplomatic source.

"Hun Sen has an uphill battle and a long way to go before Cambodia loses its reputation of being unpredictable and all too often violent."

Even with the Khmer Rouge out of the jungles and on the payroll, and a coalition deal pasting over the bitter hatred between government leaders, Cambodia's ills remain far from behind them.

Under the spotlight will be how Hun Sen and his one-time communist Cambodian People's Party tolerate the sole opposition figure and outspoken critic Sam Rainsy, isolated in dissent after FUNCINPEC joined the coalition pact.

The large investors needed are still steering clear of a country with a poor track record of stability, while the gloomy financial outlook remains hostage to Asia's broader economic woes.

There is a deep-seated culture of corruption, political violence and impunity, and promises to divert spending from the armed forces to the health and education sectors have yet to translate to reality.

Aid workers continue to sound alarm bells over the country's worsening AIDS epidemic, while environmental groups point out a series of illegal logging deals that threaten to wipe out one of Cambodia's richest resources.

Rights workers say allowing the brutal Khmer Rouge to defect or die peaceful jungle deaths without justice is at the heart of Cambodia's malaise.

"This is giving a strange message to young people: killing two million people and then going unpunished for it," explained Youk Chhang, director of Cambodia's Genocide Documentation Center.

"We have not seen the last of the Khmer Rouge: they wear the same clothes as us now, they shop in the same markets but their passport is the AK-47, which they can take out anytime."