Negeri Sembilan election: Move to dissolve state assembly Anwar's 'tit-for-tat' response to Johor snap polls
analysis Asia
Negeri Sembilan election: Move to dissolve state assembly Anwar’s ‘tit-for-tat’ response to Johor snap polls
Observers told CNA that the move by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan in Negeri Sembilan is a “calculated effort” to preempt any political momentum the Barisan Nasional coalition might gain in Johor’s upcoming state election.
KUALA LUMPUR: The dissolution of the Negeri Sembilan state legislative assembly on Friday (Jun 5) - which had been led by a chief minister from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) - is a “tit-for-tat” response to an earlier move by the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in Johor, say analysts.
They add that the snap polls in Negeri Sembilan would be used by Anwar and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition as a bellwether to gauge voter sentiment and chart the coalition’s path forward.
Even so, observers say that PH’s move in Negeri Sembilan is a “calculated effort” to preempt any political momentum BN might gain in Johor’s state election, where the latter has signaled its intent to contest independently and is widely expected to secure a decisive victory.
Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a political science professor at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) told CNA that the PH leadership and Anwar were largely caught off guard by BN’s manoeuvres in Johor.
“By acting now, the PH (leadership) is attempting to balance the political narrative and timing. After the developments in Johor, PH wants to demonstrate that it cannot be bullied by an opposing side that is ostensibly a coalition partner at the federal level,” he said.
PH and BN are partners in the unity government, but ties between the two coalitions have been strained recently when 14 United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) assemblypersons in Negeri Sembilan withdrew their support in April for Chief Minister Aminuddin Harun over his handling of a crisis involving the state’s monarchy.
UMNO is a key component party within the BN coalition.
Ahmad Fauzi noted that Negeri Sembilan is more reflective of the national political sentiment compared to Johor.
“This election acts as a warning to PH and Anwar Ibrahim, providing a glimpse of what to expect and proving that a test run is essential to gauge the current political landscape,” he told CNA.
REACTIVE MOVE
Analysts said that PH’s decision to dissolve the Negeri Sembilan assembly more than two years before it was due was largely reactive to the political situation in Johor.
The next Negeri Sembilan state election was not initially due until November 2028 while Johor’s one was due only in June next year.
It is the prerogative of the state’s ruler or governor to dissolve the state assemblies on the advice of the chief minister, who is typically from the state’s ruling party or coalition. Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi had announced the dissolution of the state assembly on Jun 1.
Azmi Hassan, a fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, believed that PH made a “hasty” decision in calling for snap polls in Negeri Sembilan, to preempt any political momentum BN might gain from a positive showing in Johor.
“UMNO is a dominant force in Johor and can form the state government by themselves, but it isn’t the same in Negeri Sembilan,” he said.
There are 56 seats in the Johor state assembly. In the last state election in March 2022, BN won 40 seats, PH won 12 seats, Perikatan Nasional (PN) won three seats, while the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance won one seat.
Meanwhile at the August 2023 Negeri Sembilan state election, PH won 17 seats, BN won 14, and PN won five seats. At the time, PH and BN had an electoral pact to work together in the state polls.
Ahmad Fauzi echoed Azmi’s assessment, saying that PH has a stronger foothold in Negeri Sembilan than in Johor.
“PH, especially DAP, has a better standing in Negeri Sembilan especially in the urban areas, and they might feel that they have a chance to make it fair and square (against BN) but it is still very hard to predict the outcome,” he said, referring to the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a PH component party.
But Ahmad Fauzi said that PH’s move was a gamble that could backfire on them.
“It is a significant risk. If BN secures a majority and PH fails to reach a new agreement with them (post elections), they could be ousted from power in the state. Ultimately, it is a political gamble, and only the election results will reveal if it was worth the risk,” he said.
After BN had announced that it would be going solo in Johor on May 16 ahead of the Jun 1 announcement, leaders from PH had reacted angrily during their convention in the state the next day.
Anwar himself had warned then that if BN decided to not collaborate in Johor, PH was ready to also contest all state poll seats not only in the southern state, but also in Negeri Sembilan, Selangor, Penang and Pahang - as well as potentially call for a snap general election.
On Friday, Anwar said that he would have preferred Johor to delay its state election by a few months to allow the government to focus on economic recovery and addressing people’s concerns.
“We had time. I felt we should spend these two or three months fully focused on recovery efforts before holding elections. However, because Johor wanted to proceed quickly, we have had to go through the process,” he was quoted as saying by Malay Mail.
Anwar, however, also backed the Negeri Sembilan government’s decision to dissolve the state legislative assembly, saying the move was necessary to prevent prolonged uncertainty amid a crisis involving the state’s monarchy.
Tunku Muhriz still state ruler, says Anwar amid escalating royal succession dispute
On Friday, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also reaffirmed the federal government’s recognition of Tunku Muhriz as the Yang di-Pertuan or ruler of Negeri Sembilan amid an escalating constitutional crisis and claims that a new ruler had been proclaimed.
“Based on the constitutional line of succession as it stands, we cont