Negative Sentiment Haunts IHSG, Stock Exchange Expected to Weaken
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) opened trading on Monday morning up 29.02 points or 0.41% to 7,158.51. Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) Brigita Kinari, in her analysis in Jakarta on Monday (27/4/2026), assessed that the IHSG’s short-term movement tends to be mixed with a tendency towards consolidation or weakening.
Pressure is triggered by global sentiment dominated by risk-off actions as well as rupiah exchange rate weakening that encourages potential foreign capital outflows. Technically, after last weekend’s close on Friday (24/4/2026) at the 7,129 level, the index is currently in an oversold area after closing the gap in the 7,308-7,346 range.
This condition opens opportunities for a short-term technical rebound, although the room for strengthening is limited.
“The market’s focus is now on testing the crucial support in the 7,100-7,150 range. If this level fails to hold, the IHSG has the potential to continue weakening to close the next gap in the 7,022-7,080 area and test the psychological support around 6,917,” said Brigita.
From a global perspective, the failure to reach an agreement in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran prolongs geopolitical uncertainty that could disrupt energy market stability.
Without de-escalation, markets are beginning to anticipate potential tightening of global energy supply that could keep prices high. This condition risks holding back the decline in global inflation and limiting room for monetary policy easing in the short term.
In addition, Brigita explained that expectations for the direction of US central bank (The Federal Reserve) policy have shifted more hawkish in line with high energy-based inflation risks.
Overall, global conditions are pushing investors to adopt a risk-off stance, with potential shifts of funds to safe haven assets such as the US dollar and energy commodities as hedging instruments.
Meanwhile, from the domestic side, two main catalysts affecting the market are the adjustment of non-subsidised fuel (BBM) prices and significant pressure on the rupiah exchange rate, which once hit a record low in the Rp17,315 per US dollar range.
The increase in non-subsidised BBM prices, particularly Pertamax and Dex Series since 18 April, is seen as reflecting a response to still high global energy prices while maintaining fiscal credibility.
However, the market is beginning to anticipate ongoing impacts on short-term inflation, especially in the transportation and logistics sectors, which could pressure consumer purchasing power and margins in consumption-based sectors.
On the other hand, pressure on the rupiah is prompting Bank Indonesia (BI) to strengthen its policy mix for stabilisation. In the Board of Governors Meeting on 22-23 April 2026, BI decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%.
“This policy is accompanied by interventions in the foreign exchange market and optimisation of monetary instruments to dampen volatility. Nevertheless, rupiah weakening still increases the risk of imported inflation and enlarges the potential for capital outflows, particularly from the bond market,” said Brigita.
She added that the combination of energy price adjustments and tight monetary policy shows the authorities’ defensive and pre-emptive stance in maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Nevertheless, the market is expected to remain cautious in the short term amid increasing sensitivity to inflation risks and external stability.
“Going forward, the effectiveness of policy responses, especially in containing rupiah volatility without sacrificing growth momentum, will be key in determining the direction of domestic market sentiment and the sustainability of foreign fund flows,” she said.