National Rice Surplus Does Not Guarantee Lower Rice Prices
A national rice production surplus in 2026 is not expected to automatically ensure that all Indonesians can obtain rice at affordable prices. Distribution problems, logistics costs, and limited food infrastructure remain challenges, especially in remote and island regions.
Agricultural observer from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Eliza Mardian said that national rice availability, including high government rice reserves (CBP), does not necessarily reflect an even supply to hard-to-reach areas. According to Eliza, food distribution disruptions in several remote regions can directly affect the rice prices paid by consumers. In certain conditions, rice prices can even rise to Rp25,000–Rp30,000 per kilogram.
“However, the fact is that consumer-level prices in remote areas can still spike sharply,” Eliza said when contacted in Jakarta on Monday (24/8).
Food balance projection data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that Indonesia’s rice production in 2026 is estimated to reach 34.77 million tonnes. This figure is higher than the projected national requirement of 31.10 million tonnes, resulting in a surplus of around 3.67 million tonnes.
Nevertheless, this condition is not yet fully reflected in rice prices across all regions. Data from the National Strategic Food Price Information Centre (PIHPS) accessed on Tuesday (25/8) recorded the national average price of medium-quality rice at Rp16,500 per kilogram.
Several regions in eastern Indonesia recorded higher prices. The average price of medium rice in Maluku reached Rp17,600 per kilogram, North Maluku Rp18,000 per kilogram, and Papua Rp19,350 per kilogram. Higher prices were also found in several districts. In Jayawijaya Regency, for example, the rice price was recorded at Rp23,500 per kilogram, while in Mimika Regency it was at Rp19,500 per kilogram.
Eliza explained that the price gap is inseparable from inter-island distribution chain problems. High logistics costs, a lack of food storage facilities in the regions, and limited market structures in remote areas also affect the prices received by consumers.
Therefore, she assessed that food security cannot be measured solely by production volume or stock availability. Aspects of public access, price affordability, and supply continuity must also be part of food security indicators.
Eliza encouraged the government to strengthen the food distribution system in a more planned manner. This can be done by increasing storage facilities in remote districts, improving the implementation of regular and measurable market operations, and enhancing inter-island transport connectivity.
The government itself continues to use government rice reserves (CBP) as one of the instruments to maintain supply stability and rice prices in the community. The National Food Agency (Bapanas) recorded that CBP distribution from January to August 2026 reached 1.65 million tonnes. The distribution was carried out through several programmes, including the Food Supply and Price Stabilisation programme (SPHP) and food assistance.
Deputy for Food Availability and Stabilisation at Bapanas I Gusti Ketut Astawa said the acceleration of CBP distribution was carried out to control rice price developments in various regions. The policy is also part of the government’s measures to face pressure on the food sector due to the El Nino phenomenon occurring at the peak of the dry season.
Thus, the national rice production surplus needs to be followed by strengthened distribution so that the additional supply is not only recorded in the food balance sheet but can also be felt by the public in the form of stable rice availability and more affordable prices.