National Food Agency Projects Decline in Rice Production for 2026

Head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas), Amran Sulaiman, has indicated that rice production is likely to decline this year. “Last year we had a surplus of 4 million tonnes. Even if we assume a 0.2 per cent drop by year-end, that’s roughly 80,000 tonnes. We would still have a 4 million tonne surplus over two years,” Amran stated in a written release on Wednesday, 24 June 2026. He cautioned against comparing this marginal decrease with the significant production increase recorded last year.

Amran noted that the projected decline is based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), which forecasts rice production for the January–July 2026 period to be 0.08 million tonnes lower than the same period last year.

Bapanas recorded that total rice stock in Bulog warehouses as of 23 June stood at 5.17 million tonnes. This stock includes 3.23 million tonnes procured from domestic production since the beginning of 2026, along with a carry-over stock of 3.24 million tonnes from the end of 2025, which was entirely sourced from domestic procurement of 3.43 million tonnes throughout that year.

Regarding stock levels, Commission IV of the House of Representatives (DPR) member Siti Hediati Hariyadi, known as Titiek Soeharto, previously urged Minister Amran to ensure Bulog does not store rice for more than six months. “You have a stock of 5 million tonnes, but 1.5 million tonnes of that is old, discoloured rice,” Titiek said during a parliamentary hearing. She reported that during a working visit to a Bulog warehouse in Madura, East Java, she found that out of a total stock of 1.4 million tonnes, 400,000 tonnes of rice was over a year old. She pressed for faster distribution to prevent further undesirable outcomes.

Responding to the criticism, Amran claimed he had summoned the directors of Bulog. He stated that Bulog subsequently audited the damaged stock and found approximately 3,619 tonnes of spoiled rice in the Madura warehouse.