National Dialogue 2026 Charts New Development Path Towards Golden Indonesia 2045
The 2026 National Dialogue (Sarasehan Kebangsaan) demonstrates a paradigm shift in Indonesia’s development. The government no longer views universities solely as educational institutions, but as strategic partners in generating innovations that can be downstreamed into products, technologies, and policies with a direct impact on society and economic growth. This was evident from various expert presentations that consistently encouraged the involvement of higher education in applied research, technology development, and implementation across the industrial, agricultural, energy, marine, and health sectors.
Presentations highlighted that the 8% economic growth target towards Golden Indonesia 2045 can only be achieved if all sectors move in an integrated manner. In the economic and financial fields, it was explained that Indonesia is targeting becoming one of the world’s five largest economies by 2045, supported by relatively strong economic fundamentals, including 5.61% economic growth, controlled inflation at 3.08%, a trade balance surplus for 72 consecutive months, and foreign exchange reserves reaching USD 144.9 billion. These conditions serve as important capital to drive investment, industrialisation, and strengthen national competitiveness.
In the agricultural sector, the government confirmed the success of rice self-sufficiency by the end of 2025, with rice reserves reaching approximately 5.17 million tonnes, the highest in Indonesian history. Modern agricultural transformation through mechanisation, drones, and the Precision Modern Agriculture (PM-AAS) system is claimed to be capable of reducing production costs by up to 50% while increasing productivity by up to 100%, potentially yielding more than 10 tonnes of unhulled rice per hectare. Meanwhile, the revitalisation of the fertiliser industry is being carried out through a 20% reduction in subsidised fertiliser prices, the addition of 700,000 tonnes of subsidised fertiliser, and the construction of seven new fertiliser plants, indicating that agricultural modernisation is directed at improving farmer welfare while safeguarding national food security.
In the energy sector, the main challenge remains the high dependence on energy imports. National oil production is currently around 605,000 barrels per day, while consumption has reached approximately 1.6 million barrels per day. To address this gap, the government is reactivating unproductive oil and gas wells, offering 118 new oil and gas blocks, developing bioethanol towards E20, maintaining the biodiesel programme, and targeting a 76% new and renewable energy mix in the PLN 2025-2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). This policy demonstrates that energy self-sufficiency is oriented not only towards increasing production but also towards diversifying energy sources and developing national technology.
In the downstream and industrial sectors, the government places investment as the main engine of economic growth. Investment realisation in 2025 reached approximately IDR 1,931 trillion, absorbing around 2.7 million workers, while downstream investment increased by more than 43%. Nickel downstreaming successfully increased export value from around USD 3.3 billion to USD 33.9 billion, while strengthening Indonesia’s position as the owner of approximately 42% of the world’s nickel reserves. Going forward, the government is also encouraging the downstreaming of coconut, seaweed, and other strategic commodities so that added value is no longer enjoyed by other countries.
A consistent message emerged that Indonesia must reduce its dependence on imports, whether in the food, energy, technology, or industrial raw material sectors. This is not interpreted as an anti-globalisation stance, but as an effort to build national competitiveness so that Indonesia has a stronger bargaining position in global geopolitical dynamics. The establishment of Danantara, the development of the semiconductor industry, national electric vehicles, artificial intelligence (AI), and the strengthening of the pharmaceutical industry are examples of strategies directed at strengthening Indonesia’s technological independence.
Interestingly, economic development at the 2026 Indonesian Science, Technology, and Industry Convention (KSTI) forum was not viewed solely from the perspective of investment and GDP growth. Culture was positioned as the foundation of national identity as well as an instrument of diplomacy and a driver of the creative economy. Indonesia possesses extraordinary cultural wealth, with around 1,340 ethnic groups, 718 regional languages, more than 49,000 suspected cultural heritage objects, and 2,727 Intangible Cultural Heritage items. This wealth is seen as social capital and a source of culture- and tourism-based economic growth.
A similar perspective was evident in the marine and fisheries sector through the Blue Economy concept. Indonesia is the world’s second-largest fisheries producer, with an export value of around USD 6.2 billion. The government has established five main blue economy policies, including marine conservation, measured fishing, sustainable aquaculture development, and reducing plastic waste in the sea. Furthermore, seaweed downstreaming is directed towards producing biomaterials, functional foods, and bioplastics, so it is no longer exported solely as a raw material.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs provided a global perspective that geopolitical changes, the development of artificial intelligence (AI), the energy transition, and climate change will be determining factors for future development success. According to him, the world has moved towards a multipolar order with the rise of China, India, and Russia, while the development of AI, electric vehicles, and digital technology will determine a country’s competitiveness. Indonesia is considered to have a great opportunity to become a leader in sustainable development if it can integrate technological innovation, investment, education, and policies oriented towards the Sustainable Development Goals.