N. Korea-U.S. accord signals changes in Asia

N. Korea-U.S. accord signals changes in Asia

By Lee Su-wan

SEOUL (Reuter): The nuclear safeguards agreement between the United States and North Korea holds out some hope of detente on the Korean peninsula after decades of hostility, analysts said on Sunday.

They said Stalinist North Korea had scored a coup by winning U.S. agreement to work towards diplomatic recognition, starting with representatives in each other's capitals.

The United States, which has more than 36,000 troops in South Korea, secured a promise from the North to freeze its existing nuclear program -- which the West suspects is aimed at making bombs -- in return for new reactor technology.

"The agreement will prove a turning point in shaping a new order. Confrontation will give way to cooperation in Northeast Asia," said Yoon Yong-kwan, a political science professor at Seoul National University.

Yoon and other analysts said an eventual normalization of ties between Washington and Pyongyang would have a snowball effect, with Japan and Western countries following suit.

"The U.S.-North Korean deal signals fundamental changes. I believe efforts by the two Koreas to end hostilities will gather pace," said analyst Kim Jae-hoon.

"There is bound to be a new mood of detente if the North opens its doors and join the rest of the world."

South Korean newspapers hailed the accord. "A mood of dialog will prevail in Northeast Asia as the nuclear problem shows signs of settlement," said Dong-A Ilbo in an editorial.

Korea has been a focus of superpower tensions since the peninsula was divided in 1945 into Soviet and U.S. zones of influence. In the 1950-53 war sparked by a Northern invasion, China fought for the North and a U.S.-led United Nations force supported the South.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the North's strongest ally disappeared. Its only remaining backer China has been rapidly expanding ties with booming South Korea.

Under the agreement announced on Saturday after a week of talks in Geneva, the North will switch to light-water reactors and close down graphite reactors that can produce plutonium for bomb-making.

The United States will put together a consortium of nations to meet the estimated four billion U.S. dollars cost of new reactors and ensure the North gets alternative energy supplies until they come on line.

The two sides also agreed to exchange diplomatic representatives and reduce barriers to trade and investment as a move towards full normalization of relations.

The North Koreans agreed to freeze construction of two graphite reactors nearing completion and "forgo reprocessing" of nuclear fuel once they receive assurances that the light-water project will go ahead.

South Korean officials have generally been cautious about the accord, saying it is premature to judge the crisis over.

Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo told reporters on Saturday the agreement was a step forward but many practical details were unresolved. "It is only an initial step."

A foreign ministry official said on Sunday he expected ties between Pyongyang and Washington would start with liaison offices, which would be set up only after all details of the North's nuclear program were revealed.

"Our government is prepared to support the North to forge better ties with the United States and other countries if Pyongyang honors its promise to end its nuclear ambitions," the official said.

He said Seoul was expected to play an active part in the construction of light-water reactors in the North.

"The South's participation in the construction will help promote economic and other exchanges between the two sides," the official said.

An information ministry spokesman said on Saturday he believed that the late president Kim Il-sung's son and designated successor, Kim Jong-il, was seeking to end his country's isolation.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju, North Korea's chief negotiator in the Geneva talks, told Reuters on Saturday that Kim Jong-il had effectively run the country for 20 years and no foreign policy changes were likely.

Analysts in Seoul said many crucial details of the Geneva accord must be settled in future negotiations, including inspections to check whether the North has already developed nuclear weapons.

U.S. intelligence officials believe the North already has enough weapons-grade plutonium, produced through diverting material from its existing reactor, to make one or two bombs.

The North insists its nuclear program is peaceful.

The United States and North Korea will meet again in Geneva on Sept. 23, but before then will send experts to each other's capitals to work on such issues as how to shut down existing reactors and extend the life of 8,000 fuel rods removed from the Yongbyon reactor earlier this year.

The North had barred International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from witnessing the refueling to check whether any plutonium had been diverted for weapons.