Myanmar remains a thorn in ASEAN's side eight years on

Syed Nadzri, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

Myanmar is proving to be a pain for ASEAN, eight years after joining the fold.

And the unease it reportedly created among fellow members at the annual retreat of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Cebu over the weekend has somewhat confirmed that it has indeed become a thorn in the side of one of the world's most prominent regional groupings.

The issue is clear -- Myanmar is scheduled to take over the chairmanship of ASEAN next year from Malaysia. But most members feel it first needs to improve on its human rights record, which has been routinely described as horrendous. Either that or miss its turn.

The United States, the European Union and many other countries, which regularly participate in ASEAN forums as dialogue partners, have now threatened to boycott such events if and when Myanmar assumes the chairmanship.

The ASEAN chairmanship is rotated yearly among the 10 members according to the alphabetical order of the countries.

The current chairman is Laos, while Malaysia will take over later this year, followed by Myanmar and the Philippines.

The Cebu meeting was the third time in six months that the 10- member ASEAN has had to deal with the issue of Myanmar.

The first was at the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Hanoi in October last year when the grouping had to hold its ground in the wake of tremendous pressure from its European partners who did not want Myanmar to be represented at the discussion table.

The meeting eventually took place with Myanmar but only after concerted face-saving measures accompanied by constant reminders that an Asia-Europe dialogue and the enormous business potential that could be generated were bigger than the problems of any one country.

A month later, at the 10th ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, the tension remained and provided the litmus test of the ASEAN members' founding principle of non-interference in each other's internal affairs.

But Myanmar, anticipating that it was in for some tough moments, came up with a timely act to soften the blow.

In what was believed to be a pre-emptive move, the country's military junta released some 9,000 detainees from its prisons just days before the start of the summit.

This, however, did little to convince the international community that things had really changed because the roadmap to democracy as agreed to by the ruling generals has been followed at a snail's pace.

Meanwhile, the rest of ASEAN appears to be increasingly agitated as each time they deal with the Myanmar issue, the split within the ranks seems to widen.

There is now what is called a delicate balancing act between ASEAN's established practices and principles and its credibility.

And it is quite clear that Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines are getting impatient with Myanmar while Thailand and the newer ASEAN members like Cambodia and Laos still believe in sticking to the founding principles of non-interference and giving the old constructive-engagement formula another chance.

At the Cebu retreat, for instance, the foreign ministers, perhaps sensing how divisive the issue had become, only talked about it during a coffee-break.

Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar was reported to have said that the rest of the ASEAN ministers told Myanmar's Nyan Win that the grouping would let Myanmar decide whether to take up the chairmanship.

Any solution, he added, must be good for ASEAN as a whole.

Observers believe that this amounted to an oblique way of saying, "If you know what's best for you and the grouping, you better volunteer to give it up". It's like a face-saving way out of the predicament. The decision is voluntary and not forced.

But knowing Yangon, this is quite unlikely to happen. It did not relent when it was seriously suggested that, as a compromise, its Prime Minister should not go for the ASEM Summit last year but instead send lower-ranking ministers in his place.

The next major regional forum is the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Vientiane in July. If nothing concrete is done by then about Myanmar's position, ASEAN is going to be bogged down by the same old problem.