Myanmar ready to join ASEAN in July

Myanmar ready to join ASEAN in July

By Michele Cooper

YANGON (AFP): Myanmar says it is ready, although not
desperate, to join ASEAN in July but analysts say there is a lot
riding on entry to the regional group for the country, its
economy and its leaders.

Even the universities, which were ordered to close in December
in the wake of widespread protests, are generally not expected to
open until after Myanmar's ASEAN membership is set.

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has warned that entry into
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will
consolidate the power of the ruling junta and make it harder to
move toward democracy.

"And she is absolutely right," a foreign businessman
commented, because ASEAN membership will boost Myanmar's
international position, making it a partner of southeast Asia's
dynamic economies.

It will also take some of the pressure off the junta in its
handling of the opposition, for "once they (Myanmar and ASEAN)
are married, there is no provision for divorce," a Yangon-based
diplomat cautioned.

"When Myanmar army troops are exchanging fire with Thai
troops ... and invading Thai territory and burning down (Karen
refugee) camps and villages, and having real difficulties with
Malaysia in terms of not accepting back illegal workers and other
things, why are they (ASEAN) thinking of doing a favor for these
guys?

"Isn't this a natural case for a prenuptial agreement," the
diplomat asked.

Publicly, ASEAN officials -- who have not yet announced a date
for membership -- say they will be able to exercise more
influence once Myanmar is a member. Privately, some acknowledge
that it is a gamble.

ASEAN, which holds its annual foreign ministers' meeting in
July, groups Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are
candidate members.

Some Myanmar-watchers contend that ASEAN entry will also
bolster the position of the intelligence service, headed by
Lt.Gen. Khin Nyunt, which is believed to have steered Myanmar
toward greater interaction with the outside world as well as
toward negotiations with ethnic rebels.

Regular army men in the junta, officially known as the State
Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), are said to have
reservations about both approaches and about the men who are
their proponents.

However, opinion is not unanimous.

A government official with access to high levels of the junta,
told AFP there was no tension between the two and that, on the
contrary, the SLORC is truly a collective leadership with
decisions reached by consensus.

Other independent observers support that view. They underscore
the fact that top officers, products of the same military academy
whatever their branch of service, would unite against any
challenge.

Myanmar stresses it does not want to be a drain on ASEAN. With
rich natural resources, educated manpower with a good command of
English, ASEAN's working language, plus a legal framework
inherited from the British colonial era, "we want to be more of a
contributor," a government official said.

Myanmar sees itself as a natural "friendship bridge" linking
China, India and ASEAN and providing a channel for trade, the
official said.

Yangon was ready, although not "desperate," to join ASEAN, he
said, and could even take its place in the alphabetical rotation
and host the annual foreign ministers' meeting next year.

Whether Yangon would be ready to cope with the large number of
journalists who cover such an event -- including those from ASEAN
states with an unbridled press -- remains to be seen.

Of more concern to ASEAN members, however, is the potential
drag on their economies from the three less developed regional
nations.

Myanmar, which a U.S. veto has barred from access to
international assistance via the International Monetary Fund or
the World Bank, "cannot, under those circumstances, be very
attractive to ASEAN," a visiting ASEAN businessman held.

The junta, meanwhile, is banking on three things to ensure its
future, analysts say: ASEAN membership, revenue from its large
offshore oil and gas fields which are expected to flow in about
three years, and the gradual improvement in the standard of
living of educated citizens.

"We need a strong middle class for stability. Myanmar (Burma)
pins its hopes on the growing middle class," the government
official said.