Myanmar ready to join ASEAN in July

Myanmar ready to join ASEAN in July

By Michele Cooper

YANGON (AFP): Myanmar says it is ready, although not desperate, to join ASEAN in July but analysts say there is a lot riding on entry to the regional group for the country, its economy and its leaders.

Even the universities, which were ordered to close in December in the wake of widespread protests, are generally not expected to open until after Myanmar's ASEAN membership is set.

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has warned that entry into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will consolidate the power of the ruling junta and make it harder to move toward democracy.

"And she is absolutely right," a foreign businessman commented, because ASEAN membership will boost Myanmar's international position, making it a partner of southeast Asia's dynamic economies.

It will also take some of the pressure off the junta in its handling of the opposition, for "once they (Myanmar and ASEAN) are married, there is no provision for divorce," a Yangon-based diplomat cautioned.

"When Myanmar army troops are exchanging fire with Thai troops ... and invading Thai territory and burning down (Karen refugee) camps and villages, and having real difficulties with Malaysia in terms of not accepting back illegal workers and other things, why are they (ASEAN) thinking of doing a favor for these guys?

"Isn't this a natural case for a prenuptial agreement," the diplomat asked.

Publicly, ASEAN officials -- who have not yet announced a date for membership -- say they will be able to exercise more influence once Myanmar is a member. Privately, some acknowledge that it is a gamble.

ASEAN, which holds its annual foreign ministers' meeting in July, groups Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are candidate members.

Some Myanmar-watchers contend that ASEAN entry will also bolster the position of the intelligence service, headed by Lt.Gen. Khin Nyunt, which is believed to have steered Myanmar toward greater interaction with the outside world as well as toward negotiations with ethnic rebels.

Regular army men in the junta, officially known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), are said to have reservations about both approaches and about the men who are their proponents.

However, opinion is not unanimous.

A government official with access to high levels of the junta, told AFP there was no tension between the two and that, on the contrary, the SLORC is truly a collective leadership with decisions reached by consensus.

Other independent observers support that view. They underscore the fact that top officers, products of the same military academy whatever their branch of service, would unite against any challenge.

Myanmar stresses it does not want to be a drain on ASEAN. With rich natural resources, educated manpower with a good command of English, ASEAN's working language, plus a legal framework inherited from the British colonial era, "we want to be more of a contributor," a government official said.

Myanmar sees itself as a natural "friendship bridge" linking China, India and ASEAN and providing a channel for trade, the official said.

Yangon was ready, although not "desperate," to join ASEAN, he said, and could even take its place in the alphabetical rotation and host the annual foreign ministers' meeting next year.

Whether Yangon would be ready to cope with the large number of journalists who cover such an event -- including those from ASEAN states with an unbridled press -- remains to be seen.

Of more concern to ASEAN members, however, is the potential drag on their economies from the three less developed regional nations.

Myanmar, which a U.S. veto has barred from access to international assistance via the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, "cannot, under those circumstances, be very attractive to ASEAN," a visiting ASEAN businessman held.

The junta, meanwhile, is banking on three things to ensure its future, analysts say: ASEAN membership, revenue from its large offshore oil and gas fields which are expected to flow in about three years, and the gradual improvement in the standard of living of educated citizens.

"We need a strong middle class for stability. Myanmar (Burma) pins its hopes on the growing middle class," the government official said.