MSME Resilience Maintained, Supported by Optimistic Business Prospects
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, or BRI, has released the MSME Business Index for Q2-2026 along with projections for Q3-2026. Survey results indicate that MSME business activity remains in an expansionary phase, with the MSME Business Index recorded at 102.1. Amidst dynamics in purchasing power, MSME players continue to show optimism regarding their future business prospects.
BRI President Director Hery Gunardi stated that the maintenance of MSME business activity in Q2-2026 was supported by several factors, ranging from sustained positive economic growth, large-scale harvests of food crops and favourable agricultural product prices, the commencement of government and private projects, conducive weather conditions, to the continued aggressive distribution of social assistance.
Nevertheless, the rate of expansion experienced a slowdown compared to Q1-2026. This condition was influenced by factors including the normalisation of demand following major holidays and religious festivals (HBKN), weakened public purchasing power, rising input prices and operational costs, limited business capital, and increasingly intense business competition. These developments align with the moderation of economic growth in Q2-2026.
“The business prospects for MSMEs in Q3-2026 are expected to remain in an expansionary phase, albeit more moderate, primarily supported by the increase in government and private projects which will provide a spillover effect to other sectors and a steadily growing economy. On the other hand, weakened purchasing power and El Niño remain risk factors that need to be closely monitored, particularly for the agricultural sector,” said Hery, as quoted from a written statement on Thursday (17/9/2026).
Optimism regarding business prospects is also reflected in MSME investment activity, which continues to grow with an index above 100. This indicates that despite the moderation in business activity, MSME players maintain confidence in economic prospects and the sustainability of their businesses.
From a sectoral perspective, the majority of MSME sectors recorded an index above 100 in Q2-2026. The agriculture, construction, and mining sectors recorded strengthening, driven by the momentum of large-scale harvests, good selling prices for agricultural products, and the commencement of government and private projects supported by favourable weather conditions.
Meanwhile, the performance of other sectors showed more moderate development. The manufacturing industry and other services remain in an expansionary phase, although experiencing a slowdown. This was primarily influenced by the normalisation of demand post-HBKN, weakened public purchasing power, rising input prices and operational costs, and increasingly intense business competition.
Although activity in Q2-2026 experienced moderation, MSME business prospects for Q3-2026 still show a positive direction. Business activity across all sectors is expected to remain in an expansionary phase, albeit at a more moderate pace.
The mining and construction sectors are expected to be pillars of support as more government and private projects commence. This prospect aligns with the maintained business sentiment of MSME players for the next three months. The MSME Business Sentiment Expectation Index for Q3-2026 was recorded at 120.2.
An index level significantly above 100 indicates strong optimism regarding economic prospects, business sectors, and future business developments.
This optimism is evident in the majority of business sectors. Business sentiment remains above 100 in most sectors, with construction recording an increase of 7.4 points to 110.8 and mining increasing by 1.6 points to 108.3.
The strengthening of these two sectors was primarily driven by the rollout of government and private projects, increased demand for sand, stone, and building aggregates, and favourable weather conditions.
In addition to optimism regarding business prospects, the survey also shows that MSME players’ confidence in the government remains maintained. The MSME Business Confidence Index towards the Government (IKP) for Q2-2026 was recorded at 107.4, remaining above 100.
The highest rating was given to the aspect of providing a sense of security and peace, with an index of 130.4, followed by the provision and maintenance of infrastructure at 116.5.
Hery assessed that the overall survey results show that MSME players still possess resilience amidst the moderation of economic activity. Despite facing pressures from purchasing power, rising business costs, and intensifying competition, optimism regarding business prospects remains a vital asset for MSMEs to maintain business sustainability and capture growth opportunities.
“This condition demonstrates the importance of continuously maintaining public purchasing power, while simultaneously creating space for MSMEs to grow. BRI will continue to closely monitor these dynamics as part of our efforts to support MSMEs so they are able to maintain business sustainability and capture future growth opportunities,” said Hery.