MSCI Review Announcement Tomorrow: Key Points for Investors

MSCI will announce the results of its August 2026 Index Review in the early hours of Thursday, 13 August 2026, Indonesia time. The list of additions and deletions will be published shortly after 23:00 Central European Summer Time on 12 August, or around 04:00 WIB on 13 August. Changes will be implemented after the close of trading on 31 August and will be effective from 1 September. Investors should distinguish between the announcement date and the implementation date. Price reactions may occur immediately after the results are announced, but adjustment transactions by index-tracking funds are typically more pronounced near the close on the implementation date.

The latest MSCI factsheet shows the MSCI Indonesia IMI 25/50 Index comprised 54 constituents as of 31 July 2026, with an index capitalisation of US$79.16 billion. The index covers Large Cap, Mid Cap, and Small Cap stocks and is designed to represent approximately 99% of Indonesia’s free float market capitalisation. The July data provides a snapshot of the index’s position before the August Review but is not a leak of the rebalancing results. Weights may still change depending on price movements, free float adjustments, and MSCI’s decisions. The IMI 25/50 is an umbrella index combining the Standard and Small Cap indices, with the 25/50 designation referring to concentration limits for US regulated investment companies. A stock moving from the Standard Index to the Small Cap Index represents a size segment downgrade but does not necessarily mean removal from the MSCI Indonesia IMI.

This August Review is distinct because MSCI is maintaining special treatment regarding transparency of ownership structure, free float, and concerns about coordinated trading. In a 6 July announcement, MSCI confirmed it will not add any new Indonesian stocks to the MSCI Investable Market Indexes. It will also not execute any migrations from Small Cap to Standard and has frozen all increases in the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) and Number of Shares (NOS). Consequently, investors need not chase rumours of new Indonesian stocks entering the IMI or Small Cap constituents being upgraded. However, the freeze does not leave Indonesia’s composition entirely static. MSCI can still lower FIFs, move stocks from Standard to Small Cap, or delete stocks that fail to meet requirements. MSCI will also delete stocks identified by Indonesian authorities under the High Shareholding Concentration framework and may use shareholder data above 1% to adjust free float estimates. This creates an asymmetric risk profile: additions and weight increases are restricted, while weight reductions, size segment downgrades, and deletions remain possible. Primary attention should be on potential deletions, FIF reductions, HSC status, and downgrades from Standard to Small Cap.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk is the Indonesian stock explicitly highlighted by MSCI ahead of the August Review. In the previous review, MSCI retained GOTO in the Standard Index as a Mid Cap but froze changes to the stock after it traded at the minimum price of Rp50 and experienced very low liquidity. MSCI stated it would re-examine GOTO’s liquidity in the August Review and will delete the stock if it fails to meet liquidity requirements. As of 31 July, GOTO’s weight in the MSCI Indonesia IMI 25/50 was 3.43%, but this figure alone does not determine its retention; the decision depends on the application of MSCI’s liquidity methodology.

Both the August and November reviews are regular Index Reviews that can change constituents, size segments, FIF, NOS, and weights. The key difference this year is a special evaluation of Indonesia’s market treatment ahead of the November review. The August Review takes place while the freeze is still in effect, so the focus is on stock-by-stock changes with additions and upward migrations blocked. Ahead of November, MSCI will evaluate whether transparency reforms by the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) have been implemented consistently and are having a sustainable impact. These reforms include disclosure of shareholders above 1%, more detailed investor classification, the HSC framework, and a roadmap to increase the minimum free float to 15%. MSCI will assess not only the policy announcements but also their effectiveness for international institutional investors. The narrative that MSCI will definitely downgrade Indonesia and Turkey in November needs correction. If Indonesia’s progress is deemed insufficient, MSCI will then consider options, including a consultation on reclassification from Emerging Market to Frontier Market. Under current conditions, a downgrade is not the primary scenario. In the 2026 Global Market Accessibility Review, Indonesia’s score declined on the Information Flow criterion due to free float transparency issues and indications of coordinated trading. However, Indonesia’s scorecard still shows no significant issues on foreign ownership, capital flows, or market openness.