MSCI Rebalancing to Shadow IHSG This Week

Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Hari Rachmansyah, assesses that the movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) this week will be influenced by the rebalancing or adjustment of Indonesian stock weights by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). “The MSCI Indonesia rebalancing, scheduled for 12 May 2026, is unlikely to introduce new entrants but still has the potential to trigger shifts in stock weights that could affect the overall market direction,” Hari stated in a written release on Monday, 11 May 2026. According to him, the rebalancing agenda could trigger portfolio rotations that create short-term volatility in large-cap stocks. In addition, Hari said market players need to pay attention to royalty tariff policies for copper, tin, nickel, gold, and silver commodities. The tariff changes were proposed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources in a public consultation session held on 8 May. According to Hari, pressure on the mining sector does not stop at royalty increases alone. “Discussions on the implementation of export duties and windfall taxes being reviewed by the Ministry of Finance further add layers of uncertainty, particularly for the nickel and coal sub-sectors, so overall mining sector volatility could persist in the short term,” Hari said. This week, trading will take place from 11-13 May 2026. Hari assesses that IHSG movements this week are potentially mixed and tend to be limited. He suggests that investors remain selective with a trading-oriented approach.