MSCI Freezes Indonesia Stock Rebalancing, BBCA and BBNI Deemed Stable

JAKARTA - Morgan Stanley Capital International’s decision to freeze the rebalancing of Indonesian stocks in May 2026 has yet to exert significant pressure on banking stocks. Shares of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk remain relatively stable amid this sentiment. Movements in large bank stocks show varied patterns. BBCA weakened slightly to 6,450, down 0.39% in the second trading session on Tuesday. Its intraday movement ranged from 6,425 to 6,525. BBNI moved differently. This stock strengthened to 3,710, up 1.09%. The rise occurred gradually from the 3,670 area since the early session, briefly touching 3,720. Deeper pressure hit PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk. BBRI corrected 4.94% to 3,270. The stock opened around 3,440, then dropped sharply and traded in the 3,250 to 3,280 range. He sees greater pressure on stocks like PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk and PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk. Both are at risk of exiting the MSCI index. These two issuers fall into the category of high shareholding concentration. “If banking is attractive, it’s mixed. BBRI’s weakness is natural due to the ex-date (dividend) factor. But BBCA and BBNI remain stable, not significantly impacted,” said Nafan when contacted on Tuesday. Nafan assesses that the free float level is a key factor. Issuers with free float below 15% are more vulnerable to pressure. A good free float reflects liquidity and transparency. This condition makes stocks more appealing to global investors. “It could only have a significant impact on weakness when the free float is still below 15%. That’s how it is, so if the issuer’s free float quality is good, it rises, that will make it even more,” he emphasised. “Because the stocks that are truly available to the public, not controlled by affiliated parties that are somewhat complex in nature,” Nafan continued. “Year-to-date, our net foreign is still in deficit, around more than Rp30 trillion as I recall, if global investors are indeed still prudent,” he said. The rebalancing freeze could curb foreign investor interest. Market reforms are still deemed necessary to improve global perception.