More violence predicted ahead of general election

JAKARTA (JP): Observers have painted a gloomy picture of Indonesia before and after the June 7 general election, an election in which they said violence would prevail.

Speaking in a discussion entitled Potential for Conflict around the General Election, Hermawan Sulistyo of the Indonesian Institute of Science said on Thursday that there would be frequent outbreaks of violence in the run-up to and after the polls.

"There will be no clashes which are as massive in size as those seen in the past due to the absence of ideological rivalry, but there will definitely be regular outbreaks of localized violence," he said.

A series of clashes recently flared up between supporters of the National Awakening Party and the United Development Party in Central Java. Four people died in the most recent clash, which took place in Jepara last Friday.

Hermawan was discussing a study which concluded that many parts of Indonesia were prone to unrest triggered by socioeconomic disparities and public distrust of government institutions.

The results of the study, conducted jointly by Trisakti University research center, the Research Institute for Democracy and Peace and alumni of Bandung Institute of Technology grouped in Suara 234, was presented on Thursday.

Hermawan said party leaders could make things worse if they failed to reach a peaceful consensus or were not prepared to accept defeat.

"In many cases peace accords between conflicting groups are only reached with government coercion. (Under these circumstances) party leaders can agree to a truce, but they cannot not prevent their grassroots supporters from brawling with each other," he said.

Hermawan said party leaders could reduce the potential for violence if they conducted wise campaigns.

"They should not focus on socioeconomic inequalities in poor areas, and should avoid talking about religious issues in territories dominated by a single religious group," Hermawan said.

Ban

Meanwhile in Yogyakarta, the provincial election supervisory committee imposed a ban on two cabinet ministers, Akbar Tandjung and Hamzah Haz, from campaigning for their respective parties in the province.

Deputy chairman of the committee, Mohammad Mahfud, said on Thursday that the decision was based on a General Elections Commission (KPU) stipulation banning political parties from recruiting government officials, including ministers, for campaign rallies.

"Both the KPU and the President have agreed to allow the two ministers to campaign due to their positions as chairmen of their respective parties, but we find the agreement is not legitimate," Mahfud said, adding that the KPU's decision to take a relaxed view of the matter had violated its own rules.

Akbar, who is Minister/State Secretary, chairs the ruling Golkar Party, while Hamzah, who is State Minister of Investment, is the chairman of the United Development Party (PPP).

KPU chairman Rudini has said both Akbar and Hamzah will be exempt from the rule, provided they take leave of absence and are replaced in the government by temporary presidential appointees for the duration of the campaign period, which runs from May 19 to June 4.

Akbar has announced he will take leave of absence, while Hamzah has said he intends to resign from the cabinet in order to join the campaign.

A member of the Election Supervisory Committee, Dadang Hawari, said he supported the Yogyakarta poll supervisory body's decision. "We basically agreed with the provincial election committee's decision to ban cabinet ministers from campaigning here, but we'd better talk about the matter with both the KPU and the President," Dadang said after meeting Mahfud.

Antara reported from Surabaya that the Eastern Naval Base has made available at least 29 warships to help the military maintain security during the election.

The Naval base has also reserved a further 21 ships and 17 aircraft to back up the fleet already prepared for the polls. (44/amd)