Moody’s and S&P Flag Risks in Indonesia's Commodity Export Control Plan

Indonesia’s government plans to centralise control of exports of strategic commodities by establishing a state-owned trading company under the oversight of sovereign wealth fund Danantara Indonesia to manage exports, starting with palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys. The move, announced by President Prabowo Subianto in a speech to parliament on Wednesday, 20 May 2026, aims to tackle underinvoicing and transfer pricing perceived to deprive the state of revenue. ‘I told my cabinet, determine the price of nickel, gold. Every price must be determined by us,’ Prabowo said. The policy is among the most aggressive steps to bolster state control over natural resources. S&P Global Ratings warned that centralising exports could reduce the volume of Indonesian shipments to international markets, potentially affecting government revenue and the balance of payments. The rating agency said the new policy may create ‘significant uncertainty’ about Indonesia’s outlook. Moody’s echoed similar concerns that the plan could disrupt markets and raise risk for mining companies.