Monsoon forecast to end next month
Monsoon forecast to end next month
JAKARTA (JP): The National Meteorology and Geophysics Agency has predicted that the rainy season will end next month.
The head of the agency, Sri Diharto, told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday that the rainy season would peak this month in Jakarta and most parts of Indonesia.
"Due to the continuation of the effects from the El Nino phenomenon, which is expected to end in June, rain will likely continue to fall sporadically. Rains should come with high intensity but in short durations," Diharto said.
He hoped such rains would reduce the possibility of flooding in the city.
"Currently the land surface here (in Jakarta) can absorb lots of water. So hopefully, if the water reservoirs, gutters, dikes and the drainage system are well-prepared, there will be no big floods," he said.
He said the coming dry season, which he described as a "wet- dry" season, would bring sporadic rains from time to time.
"Actually it is good for us to have a wet-dry season, because it means that there will be enough water retained in the ground and this is good for agricultural activities," he said.
He said last year was the worst dry season in 20 years because most parts of the country lacked significant rainfall over an eight-month period.
"In the last dry season, there were no rains due to the harsh impact of El Nino. This year we hope the weather will change."
Diharto said weather experts were predicting three possible scenarios regarding Indonesia's future weather patterns.
Experts believe there is a 15 percent chance that El Nino could continue throughout this year. They predict there is a 50 percent probability that the phenomenon will decay, bringing weather patterns back to normal around June, and a 35 percent chance that a La Nina phenomenon would occur.
"La Nina is a phenomenon caused by the high temperature on the seas around Indonesia combined with the Southern oscillation positive index. When a La Nina occurs, the temperature in Darwin can be lower than the temperature in Tahiti," Diharto explained.
La Nina would help create a wet-dry season here, and when the next rainy season starts in September, the rain is likely to fall heavily, he added.
"Hopefully we will get a wetter dry season so it will help the condition of our agricultural industry, which still needs rain to water the fields."
The agency has established a flood prevention program in cooperation with the city's public works office to alert the public of possible flooding during the rainy season.
Next April the agency will announce its observations on the climate outlook in Indonesia as the dry season begins, he said.
"We will hold a presentation with related parties, such as the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology and the National Aviation and Aeronautical Institute, to give a clearer explanation about the weather condition," he added. (edt)