Mirae Asset: Global Pressures Continue to Shadow the Market
Jakarta (ANTARA) - PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas assesses that the domestic financial market is still facing pressure from global sentiments that have not yet fully subsided.
This is reflected in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), which recorded a decline of 1.33 per cent to the 6,589 level, accompanied by a net sell-off by foreign investors amounting to Rp748 billion in the regular market.
Head of Research & Chief Economist at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, Rully Arya Wisnubroto, stated in Jakarta on Friday that amidst these conditions, investors need to remain selective by closely monitoring fundamentals and domestic liquidity developments.
Pressure was visible in banking stocks, particularly BBCA and BBRI, which previously served as market pillars. Meanwhile, foreign investors are still accumulating certain stocks such as ANTM, AADI, CUAN, and PTBA, indicating a partial rotation towards commodity stocks and specific sectors.
“Global sentiment remains challenging as the US10YT approaches 5 per cent, the drastic increase of the ECB to 2.5 per cent, and oil prices remaining high. However, the transmission to the domestic market has been relatively limited so far,” said Rully.
According to Rully, the rupiah is currently trading around Rp17,547 per US dollar, with the 10-year SBN yield at 7.11 per cent. The absence of SRBI auctions throughout September has also driven the reallocation of banking liquidity into SBN.
The strengthening rupiah provides space for Bank Indonesia (BI) to reduce its defensive stance and loosen liquidity conditions in the short term, although oil price pressures and global yields still limit the scope of management via the BI-Rata.
Amidst these market dynamics, developments in domestic consumption are also a point of focus. Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, Novani Karina Saputri, noted that consumer confidence is beginning to show signs of improvement, although recovery remains uneven.
The Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) in August 2026 increased to 118.5 from 116.8 in July. The Current Economic Condition Index also rose to 109.4, while the Consumer Expectation Index increased to 127.6. However, there remains an 18.2-point gap between the perception of current economic conditions and future expectations, indicating that consumers are still viewing the current situation with caution.
“The improvement has not occurred comprehensively. The expenditure group of Rp4.1-5 million is actually the only group to record a decline in confidence, while labour market perceptions weakened among respondents with university and postgraduate education,” explained Novani.
Novani also highlighted changes in household financial management patterns. The proportion of savings decreased most significantly in households with expenditures of Rp1-4 million, while consumption increased across almost all groups. This condition may support short-term demand, but the decline in savings also indicates that the financial buffer for certain household segments is thinning.
With inflation at 3.19 per cent annually, these developments require attention as household purchasing power will become increasingly dependent on the ability of incomes to offset rising prices. Nevertheless, the increase in consumer confidence remains a positive signal for consumption prospects.
According to Novani, a sustainable recovery in consumption still requires the strengthening of real income, employment prospects, and inflation stability. “Therefore, we maintain a selective portfolio strategy with a preference for stocks with strong fundamentals and solid cash flows. Money market funds (RDPU) remain an anchor liquidity choice, while fixed income funds (RDPT) remain favourable for gradual accumulation as opportunities in the bond market improve,” said Novani.