Minister Amran Guarantees Rice Stocks Secure Until May Next Year
Head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas) and Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman has confirmed that Indonesia’s government rice reserves (CBP) are secure until May 2027, with stockpiles surpassing 5 million tonnes. Amran stated that this stock serves as a strong foundation for facing the potential El Niño weather phenomenon. The government, he said, has taken early anticipatory measures by strengthening national food stocks, particularly rice, to maintain supply and price stability.
“We prepared for El Niño well in advance. We had the experience of 2023. Alhamdulillah, we got through it. Our stock as of now is 5.2 to 5.3 million tonnes. That is the highest stock in history. So, Alhamdulillah, this is quite good,” Amran said in a statement in Jakarta on Wednesday (24/6/2026).
Amran expressed optimism that Indonesia’s rice availability will remain secure until December 2026. In fact, based on his estimates, the total stock will be sufficient until May 2027. “Insya Allah it is safe, let’s say until December. In fact, our rice is sufficient even until May (2027). So, no problem,” he added.
This aligns with the updated Food Balance Sheet projection for rice commodities in early June 2026. The year-end rice balance is estimated to record a stock of 16.24 million tonnes. This figure is derived from an initial stock of 12.54 million tonnes at the start of 2026, plus a projected annual production of 34.76 million tonnes, minus an annual consumption requirement of 31.1 million tonnes. With a projected year-end balance of 16.24 million tonnes, the stock is deemed capable of meeting national consumption needs for approximately five months into 2027. Furthermore, national rice stocks are expected to increase again in March-April 2027 with the arrival of the main harvest season.
Nevertheless, Amran acknowledged the possibility of a slight decline in rice production in 2026, citing data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) which projects total rice production from January to July 2026 to decrease by 0.08 million tonnes compared to the same period in 2025. “Last year we had a surplus of 4 million tonnes. Even if we assume a 0.2 percent decline by year-end, that’s roughly 80,000 tonnes. But we still have a surplus of 4 million tonnes over two years. Don’t just look at the 0.2 percent drop compared to last year, because last year’s figure had already risen significantly. The surplus is 4 million tonnes,” Amran explained. This predicted production surplus of 4 million tonnes in 2026 can serve as the absorption target for CBP stocks managed by Perum Bulog, with the potential for CBP stocks to continue increasing alongside the acceleration of national rice production.