'Military to make comeback during power vacuum'

Harry Bhaskara, The Jakarta Post, Surabaya

The nation is facing a possible power vacuum next month if the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) fails to reach an agreement on the amendment of the 1945 Constitution, says a political observer.

"What would happen in a political vacuum? Political vigilantism will reign supreme and the military will make a come back," noted scholar Muslim Abdurrahman told The Jakarta Post here on Sunday.

Muslim was asked to comment on an earlier statement made by MPR Speaker Amien Rais who said that a political crisis would occur there were a deadlock in the Annual Session of the Assembly next month.

One of the contentious issues in the session will be the direct presidential election.

Legislators have yet to agree on the second stage of the election if none of the presidential and vice presidential tickets was able to garner more than half of the total votes in the first round.

One group holds that the election should be repeated with the finalists only, the other group wants the MPR to have the last say in such a case.

Muslim said the potential deadlock was a real danger given the highly volatile political situation in the country.

Political parties are known for their notorious backroom dealings and they could forge an alliance on one issue but not on others so the political configuration could be very fluid, he said.

Rumors that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle would forge an alliance with Golkar was one indication, Muslim said, adding that old-guard politicians would always be able to force their wishes, regardless of what other alliances would be taking place, he said.

The stakes were too high should a deadlock occur, he said, as it would endanger "our national unity as well as our existence as a nation."

A deadlock resulting in a power vacuum was the most immediate problem to consider, he said, on top of other woes such as separatism, sectarian conflicts and skyrocketing prices of daily necessities for the common people.

"We have been deeply immersed in a political crisis and new crises are in the offing as the supremacy of political parties has failed to implement the aims of the reformation movement and to create a better future for the nation," Muslim said.

To ward off this possible danger, Muslim suggested an alliance between Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the two biggest Islamic organizations.

"Their network, their leaders and their offices have always been there. They are an overlooked social asset who have strong cultural bonds with the people," he said.

A four-day congress of Muhammadiyah's youth wing Muhammadiyah Youth (PP) was opened here on Sunday.

Two young leaders of Muhammadiyah, Rizal Sukma and Abdul Mukti, said they supported Muslim's ideas.

Rizal said the popular feeling was that the two organizations had been too tied up with religious affairs and had seldom addressed the bigger issues facing this nation.

What the people would like to know, he said, were the positions of the two organizations on the amendment of the 1945 Constitution, the military's right to vote and direct presidential elections.

"If the two organizations could make clear their stance on these big issues, they will make a big impact," said Rizal who is head of the Foreign Affairs Institute of the Muhammadiyah central board.

Citing an example, Rizal said, the two organizations could launch a joint press conference on direct presidential elections, saying something like: "Look, Indonesians are not stupid, let's go for it."

Mukti said something had to be done to overcome the current Indonesian political crisis and the NU and Muhammadiyah were the obvious choice because the majority of Indonesian Muslims are members of the two organizations.

"In the event of a political deadlock, there should be a third party and the NU and Muhammadiyah fit the bill," he said.

Mukti, however, was not sure if the Annual Session of the MPR would end up in a political deadlock. He acknowledged, however, that the debate on a direct presidential election would be a tough one.

Asked about the alternatives of holding another election in case presidential and vice presidential candidates did not garner enough votes, Mukti said he thought the Assembly should make the final decision rather than holding another election because a second vote would be very costly.