'Military to make comeback during power vacuum'

'Military to make comeback during power vacuum'

Harry Bhaskara, The Jakarta Post, Surabaya

The nation is facing a possible power vacuum next month if the
People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) fails to reach an agreement
on the amendment of the 1945 Constitution, says a political
observer.

"What would happen in a political vacuum? Political
vigilantism will reign supreme and the military will make a come
back," noted scholar Muslim Abdurrahman told The Jakarta Post
here on Sunday.

Muslim was asked to comment on an earlier statement made by
MPR Speaker Amien Rais who said that a political crisis would
occur there were a deadlock in the Annual Session of the Assembly
next month.

One of the contentious issues in the session will be the
direct presidential election.

Legislators have yet to agree on the second stage of the
election if none of the presidential and vice presidential
tickets was able to garner more than half of the total votes in
the first round.

One group holds that the election should be repeated with the
finalists only, the other group wants the MPR to have the last
say in such a case.

Muslim said the potential deadlock was a real danger given the
highly volatile political situation in the country.

Political parties are known for their notorious backroom
dealings and they could forge an alliance on one issue but not on
others so the political configuration could be very fluid, he
said.

Rumors that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle would
forge an alliance with Golkar was one indication, Muslim said,
adding that old-guard politicians would always be able to force
their wishes, regardless of what other alliances would be
taking place, he said.

The stakes were too high should a deadlock occur, he said, as
it would endanger "our national unity as well as our existence as
a nation."

A deadlock resulting in a power vacuum was the most immediate
problem to consider, he said, on top of other woes such as
separatism, sectarian conflicts and skyrocketing prices of daily
necessities for the common people.

"We have been deeply immersed in a political crisis and new
crises are in the offing as the supremacy of political parties
has failed to implement the aims of the reformation movement and
to create a better future for the nation," Muslim said.

To ward off this possible danger, Muslim suggested an alliance
between Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the two biggest
Islamic organizations.

"Their network, their leaders and their offices have always
been there. They are an overlooked social asset who have strong
cultural bonds with the people," he said.

A four-day congress of Muhammadiyah's youth wing Muhammadiyah
Youth (PP) was opened here on Sunday.

Two young leaders of Muhammadiyah, Rizal Sukma and Abdul
Mukti, said they supported Muslim's ideas.

Rizal said the popular feeling was that the two organizations
had been too tied up with religious affairs and had seldom
addressed the bigger issues facing this nation.

What the people would like to know, he said, were the
positions of the two organizations on the amendment of the 1945
Constitution, the military's right to vote and direct
presidential elections.

"If the two organizations could make clear their stance on
these big issues, they will make a big impact," said Rizal who is
head of the Foreign Affairs Institute of the Muhammadiyah central
board.

Citing an example, Rizal said, the two organizations could
launch a joint press conference on direct presidential elections,
saying something like: "Look, Indonesians are not stupid, let's
go for it."

Mukti said something had to be done to overcome the current
Indonesian political crisis and the NU and Muhammadiyah were the
obvious choice because the majority of Indonesian Muslims are
members of the two organizations.

"In the event of a political deadlock, there should be a third
party and the NU and Muhammadiyah fit the bill," he said.

Mukti, however, was not sure if the Annual Session of the MPR
would end up in a political deadlock. He acknowledged, however,
that the debate on a direct presidential election would be a
tough one.

Asked about the alternatives of holding another election in
case presidential and vice presidential candidates did not garner
enough votes, Mukti said he thought the Assembly should make the
final decision rather than holding another election because a
second vote would be very costly.