Military ready for 'civil war' in East Timor

By Ridwan Max Sijabat

DILI, East Timor (JP): Responding to concerns over a possible bloodbath following the Aug. 30 self-determination vote, the Indonesian Military says it has prepared two strategic scenarios to cope with the worst.

Col. Noer Muis, newly appointed commander of the East Timor Military District, supported earlier gloomy predictions that a new civil war would likely erupt regardless of the outcome of the vote -- autonomy under Indonesian rule or independence.

"The post ballot period will be a very critical stage since neither of the two conflicting factions seems able to accept the possibility of defeat. And this has been reflected by the numerous clashes among their supporters during the campaigning," he said in a recent interview with The Jakarta Post here.

The key question for the Military and the National Police -- in charge of security in the tiny province -- was what would happen if the proindependence side won, Muis said.

"The security authorities would face a big problem if proindependence forces won...as it would certainly incite harsh reactions from their opponents and eventually lead to negative consequences for many parties," he said.

Some 20,000 security personnel, including police, are to be assigned to strategic areas across the country to avoid open conflict between the two camps, he said, adding the deployment is being organized in cooperation with the United Nations Mission in East Timor (UNAMET).

Security personnel will also cooperate with local officials to help calm residents, both local and migrant, he said.

"We will work hard to maintain security and public order and to provide a feeling of safety among people," he promised.

Muis, who was sworn in a couple of weeks ago to replace Col. Tono Suratman, said he has met with local officials from various sectors, including banks, to assure them of security arrangements in case of violence after the ballot.

"The state oil company Pertamina, state banks, state-owned PT Telkom, food suppliers and transportation firms must continue to operate under even a possible worst condition after the ballot," he said.

He said the government and the military have made preparations to evacuate people by air, sea and land.

The Navy will prepare its warships, the Air Force will provide its cargo aircraft and land transportation will stand by to evacuate those seeking to get out of the territory, he said, adding that all vital facilities would remain under tight security to prevent any sabotage attempts.

He said Atambua in West Timor would be the main safe gate out of the territory by land while Alor Island in Southern Maluku will be prepared as a transit point for evacuees from East Timor's eastern part, including Baucau, Manatuto, Lospalos and Viqueque.

"Above all, security personnel will be the last to leave the territory," he said.

He added the military's presence in East Timor will end permanently if the East Timorese people decide to separate from Indonesia.

Muis reminded, however, Indonesia will not immediately leave East Timor if the proindependence side wins the ballot. The government will impose a period of transition before it transfers the East Timor administration to the UN.

"Indonesia will leave the territory peacefully and hand over the administration, including all vital facilities, to the UN in a civilized manner," he said.

Different

Muis, who was born in 1953 in Kuala Simpang, East Aceh, and graduated from the Army Academy in 1976, said the situation will certainly be different if the majority of East Timorese accept the autonomy proposal.

"The possibility of war and violence will be very small if the prointegration faction wins the ballot because it will be a permanent solution to East Timor issue and the government will go ahead with its autonomy package in the province," he said.

The government and the military would encourage the prointegration faction to share power with the opposing side in order to create peace in the territory, he said.

Meanwhile, the East Timor Military District would be reorganized and developed into a military command which will be led by a one-star general.

Despite the special status, East Timor in certain sectors will be directly handled by the government, he said.

"Despite a greater autonomy, East Timor's security, court, monetary and foreign affairs will still be handled by the central government," he said.

Asked about a possible deployment by the UN of a peacekeeping force to the territory in case of mounting tension after the ballot, Muis insisted that Indonesia, Portugal and the UN should stick to the May 5 tripartite agreement stipulating that the Indonesian police were responsible for security in the territory.

"We realize that the proindependence faction wants a presence of a UN peacekeeping force in East Timor but it is against the tripartite agreement.

"Most important is that the two conflicting factions must be ready to accept defeat and must disseminate the ballot results to their supporters to avoid possible violence after the ballot," he said.