Military, PAN could become kingmakers
JAKARTA (JP): The National Mandate Party (PAN) and the military will likely play a determinant role in deciding who will be the country's next president if leading parties lack support for their presidential candidates, political observers have said.
Salim Said, who has written extensively on the military, said on Thursday in a discussion here that this would happen if the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and ruling Golkar Party, along with their respective coalition partners, are balanced in power.
"Wiranto (Indonesian Military commander) and Amien Rais (PAN chairman) are expected to be kingmakers if the two coalitions have somewhat balanced strengths," he said.
J.B. Kristiadi of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Amien, known as a leading reformist figure, would play an important role, regardless of whether PAN decided to coalesce with PDI Perjuangan in the government or become an opposition force. Amien has said PAN would stay in opposition at least until the General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) slated for November.
Kristiadi suggested that the military would side with the winning party. "It has never taken the side of the opposition," Kristiadi said.
Separately, Golkar executive and noted businessman Fadel Muhammad said the most ideal coalition partner would be current front-runner PDI Perjuangan, but reiterated that Golkar was approaching other parties. By Thursday Golkar predicted it had won 124 of 462 seats in the House of Representatives.
Other observers have also raised the possibility of the military playing a role in the presidential election, but they have also stressed that the military stay neutral.
Gen. Wiranto has said the military in the legislative bodies has the same right as other legislators to participate in the General Session, including in the presidential election.
Salim predicted that based on provisional tallies, Golkar could form a coalition with the Crescent Star Party (PBB), United Development Party (PPP), Justice Party and the Nadhlatul Ummat Party (PNU) to support incumbent President B.J. Habibie for reelection.
As of 10:33 p.m. tallies of the General Elections Commission revealed PDI Perjuangan led with 19 million votes, followed by the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 9.5 million votes and Golkar with 8.8 million votes.
PPP was in fourth place with 4.9 million votes, followed by PAN with 3.4 million and PBB and PK each with less than 1 million votes.
As of Thursday afternoon, data compiled from all the 27 provincial election committees by Antara showed that PDI Perjuangan claimed 139 out of 462 House of Representatives seats on offer. Seventy-six were from West, Central and East Java.
Salim said he expected PDI Perjuangan would cooperate with PKB to support Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid for president and to form a coalition government.
Amien has said PAN would not coalesce with Golkar and that it has set conditions for a possible coalition with PDI Perjuangan. Stated conditions included the commitment of PDI Perjuangan to phase out the military's role in public life and the amendment of the 1945 Constitution.
"Many PAN supporters, especially those from the Muslim Muhammadiyah organization, would retract their support for the party if it chose to coalesce with PDI Perjuangan," Salim said.
Recently Muslim leaders have voiced criticism of the party for having many non-Muslim candidates as well as a woman presidential candidate.
In the discussion Lt. Gen. Agus Wijaya, the Indonesian Military chief assistant for general planning, said the military would also comply with the mechanism for the appointment of 200 members of regional representatives and interest groups to the MPR.
The members will also wield influence in the presidential election. Discussion participants raised objections about the possibility of having many military members representing regions and interest groups, as in the past.
The selection of regional representatives will be done by the provincial councils, while interest group representatives will be chosen by their respective groups.
Observers and politicians have expressed fears that the members could be easily bought off by ruling groups.
Separately, Joe Fernandez, a researcher with the Institute for Policy and Community Development Studies said the public must also pay attention to which Golkar legislators occupy the House of Representatives and MPR seats.
"Golkar members who are 'reformists' might support Megawati but others cannot be expected to betray Habibie," he said.
Meanwhile on Wednesday, secretary-general of the Independent Election Monitoring Committee Mulyana W. Kusumah suggested the National Elections Committee (PPI) rule that only parties which gained seats in the legislature have authority to sign the vote results.(rms/ind/amd)