Military, PAN could become kingmakers

Military, PAN could become kingmakers

JAKARTA (JP): The National Mandate Party (PAN) and the
military will likely play a determinant role in deciding who will
be the country's next president if leading parties lack support
for their presidential candidates, political observers have said.

Salim Said, who has written extensively on the military, said
on Thursday in a discussion here that this would happen if the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and
ruling Golkar Party, along with their respective coalition
partners, are balanced in power.

"Wiranto (Indonesian Military commander) and Amien Rais (PAN
chairman) are expected to be kingmakers if the two coalitions
have somewhat balanced strengths," he said.

J.B. Kristiadi of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies said Amien, known as a leading reformist figure, would
play an important role, regardless of whether PAN decided to
coalesce with PDI Perjuangan in the government or become an
opposition force. Amien has said PAN would stay in opposition at
least until the General Session of the People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR) slated for November.

Kristiadi suggested that the military would side with the
winning party. "It has never taken the side of the opposition,"
Kristiadi said.

Separately, Golkar executive and noted businessman Fadel
Muhammad said the most ideal coalition partner would be current
front-runner PDI Perjuangan, but reiterated that Golkar was
approaching other parties. By Thursday Golkar predicted it had
won 124 of 462 seats in the House of Representatives.

Other observers have also raised the possibility of the
military playing a role in the presidential election, but they
have also stressed that the military stay neutral.

Gen. Wiranto has said the military in the legislative bodies
has the same right as other legislators to participate in the
General Session, including in the presidential election.

Salim predicted that based on provisional tallies, Golkar
could form a coalition with the Crescent Star Party (PBB), United
Development Party (PPP), Justice Party and the Nadhlatul Ummat
Party (PNU) to support incumbent President B.J. Habibie for
reelection.

As of 10:33 p.m. tallies of the General Elections Commission
revealed PDI Perjuangan led with 19 million votes, followed by
the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 9.5 million votes and
Golkar with 8.8 million votes.

PPP was in fourth place with 4.9 million votes, followed by
PAN with 3.4 million and PBB and PK each with less than 1 million
votes.

As of Thursday afternoon, data compiled from all the 27
provincial election committees by Antara showed that PDI
Perjuangan claimed 139 out of 462 House of Representatives seats
on offer. Seventy-six were from West, Central and East Java.

Salim said he expected PDI Perjuangan would cooperate with PKB
to support Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid for president and to form
a coalition government.

Amien has said PAN would not coalesce with Golkar and that it
has set conditions for a possible coalition with PDI Perjuangan.
Stated conditions included the commitment of PDI Perjuangan to
phase out the military's role in public life and the amendment of
the 1945 Constitution.

"Many PAN supporters, especially those from the Muslim
Muhammadiyah organization, would retract their support for the
party if it chose to coalesce with PDI Perjuangan," Salim said.

Recently Muslim leaders have voiced criticism of the party for
having many non-Muslim candidates as well as a woman presidential
candidate.

In the discussion Lt. Gen. Agus Wijaya, the Indonesian
Military chief assistant for general planning, said the military
would also comply with the mechanism for the appointment of 200
members of regional representatives and interest groups to the
MPR.

The members will also wield influence in the presidential
election. Discussion participants raised objections about the
possibility of having many military members representing regions
and interest groups, as in the past.

The selection of regional representatives will be done by the
provincial councils, while interest group representatives will be
chosen by their respective groups.

Observers and politicians have expressed fears that the
members could be easily bought off by ruling groups.

Separately, Joe Fernandez, a researcher with the Institute for
Policy and Community Development Studies said the public must
also pay attention to which Golkar legislators occupy the House
of Representatives and MPR seats.

"Golkar members who are 'reformists' might support Megawati
but others cannot be expected to betray Habibie," he said.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, secretary-general of the Independent
Election Monitoring Committee Mulyana W. Kusumah suggested the
National Elections Committee (PPI) rule that only parties which
gained seats in the legislature have authority to sign the vote
results.(rms/ind/amd)