Middle East Tensions Rise as Houthis Target Global Trade Routes

Tensions in the Middle East have risen once again after the Houthi movement in Yemen threatened to expand attacks to strategic shipping lanes in the Red Sea, whilst Saudi Arabia increased oil exports through the port of Yanbu, west of Madinah, in anticipation of potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the United States (US) re-imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, triggering threats of retaliation from Tehran and increasing the risk of disruption to global energy supplies.

On Wednesday (15/7), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that if pressure on Iran continues, energy export routes in the region will not be safe for anyone.

“Energy exports from the region must be enjoyed by all parties in the world, or by none at all,” the IRGC said in a statement quoted by the IRNA news agency.

A day earlier, on Tuesday (14/7), US President Donald Trump also warned that Washington is prepared to increase pressure on Iran if negotiations are not resumed.

“I will keep energy targets as the last option, but ultimately we will strike energy targets,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

Saudi Arabia diverts oil exports to the Red Sea

Amid the mounting threat to the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has increased oil shipments through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Data from Signal Ocean shows oil loading at Yanbu reached around 4.7 million barrels per day on Sunday (12/7), approaching the terminal’s maximum capacity.

The increase has made Yanbu Saudi Arabia’s primary export route at a time when shipments through the Persian Gulf are disrupted by the Iran-US conflict.

According to shipping industry sources, Yanbu has almost no additional room to raise exports should the situation deteriorate further.

“Yanbu has been operating close to maximum capacity in recent weeks. There are concerns the Houthis could open a new front, but there is almost no room left to increase shipment volumes,” a shipping industry source told Reuters.

Reuters also reported that Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the capacity of its pipeline network to the Red Sea coast so that oil exports can be carried out without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the increase in export activity has also raised new concerns. A number of industry players believe the port of Yanbu could become a target for the Houthi movement if the conflict continues to widen.

Iran threatens Bab el-Mandeb as Houthis become confrontational again

The threat does not only come from the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe Iran could leverage the Houthi movement in Yemen to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and one of the world’s most important trade arteries.

On Monday (13/7), a senior Houthi official stated that the group is prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continues attacking Yemen.

The group claimed such a move could push oil prices to 200 US dollars (around Rp3.26 million) per barrel.

Tensions escalated after the Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia in retaliation for air strikes on Sanaa International Airport. The incident ended an unofficial ceasefire that had held for around four years between Riyadh and the Iran-backed group.

According to Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, the incident is not merely a matter of a single flight from Iran.

“The Houthis are testing new boundaries. If they succeed, they will grow more confident, raise their demands and attempt to push past other limits,” he said.

Chatham House researcher Farea al-Muslimi said Saudi Arabia has so far shown relative restraint in the Iran-US conflict, but the situation would change if Riyadh’s influence in Yemen came under threat.

Meanwhile, Yemeni political analyst Abdel-Bari Taher believes the country remains highly vulnerable to being exploited as an arena for regional power competition.

“The region is now in a situation of all-out confrontation. Yemen is an environment highly vulnerable to conflict because it is fragmented by armed groups and lacks full control over its maritime and airspace territories,” he said.

US blockade triggers fresh threats to global energy routes

On Wednesday (15/7), the United States re-imposed a blockade on Iranian ports after accusing Tehran of attacking commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said its military struck dozens of Iranian military targets over approximately seven hours. Iran retaliated by launching missiles at several countries hosting US forces, including Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.

Iran condemned Washington’s move and threatened to expand disruption to energy exports in the region.

“Oil and gas exports from this region will either continue for all parties or will not continue for anyone,” the Revolutionary Guards declared.

Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, also blamed Washington for the latest escalation. “The United States is the party committing aggression, not its victim,” he said.

For his part, Trump said attacks on Iran will continue if Tehran does not return to the negotiating table. “You’d better reach a deal, or you will have nothing left,” Trump said.

Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have sparked concern in global energy markets. Both waterways are the world’s principal oil trading corridors. Analysts warn that if both routes were disrupted simultaneously, the impact would be felt not only by countries in the region but also by international energy markets and supply chains.