Middle East Tensions Keep Oil Prices Above US$100
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global oil prices weakened slightly on Friday morning (24/7/2026) after a sharp rally the previous day, yet remained elevated and on course for a double-digit weekly gain. The market is being driven by mounting concerns over global supply disruptions.
According to Refinitiv data as of 09.15 Western Indonesia Time, Brent crude was at US$100.25 per barrel, down 0.44% from the previous close of US$100.69 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at US$91.71 per barrel, a 0.52% decline from the prior position of US$92.19 per barrel.
The morning dip followed a surge that saw Brent close above US$100 per barrel for the first time since May. On a weekly basis, Brent is still up around 13.5%, while WTI has strengthened by approximately 10.9%.
The oil rally was triggered by heightened risks to supply from two of the world’s most vital energy shipping lanes. Tensions escalated after the Iran-backed Houthi group claimed to have attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The assault raised fears that the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, could be disrupted. This waterway is the second most important oil transit corridor globally, after the Strait of Hormuz.
The situation is further complicated by the Houthis’ earlier declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. This move came as Saudi Arabia began diverting oil exports through pipelines in response to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran would be held accountable should further attacks on tankers occur.
Simultaneously, supply from Kazakhstan is under pressure. The country’s Energy Ministry announced that oil and gas companies had temporarily cut production after a suspected Ukrainian drone attack forced a major export terminal on the Black Sea to halt operations. The disruption is linked to the shutdown of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facility, a primary export route for Kazakh crude that handles roughly 2% of daily global oil supply. Industry sources cited by Reuters indicated that one of Kazakhstan’s largest oil fields had slashed production by more than half.
The combination of threats to the Bab el-Mandeb, ongoing disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, and reduced supply from Kazakhstan has led market participants to price a geopolitical risk premium back into crude. As long as uncertainty persists along these major distribution routes, the oil market is expected to remain volatile with a tendency to stay at elevated levels.