Middle East Conflict Casts Shadow Over IHSG Movement This Week
Equity analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas, David Kurniawan, said the movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) this week will still be shadowed by the dynamics of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Tensions rose again after Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.
“Entering the week of 13-17 July 2026, market attention will centre on important economic agendas from abroad,” David said in a press release on Monday, 13 July 2026. One of the data releases expected is the United States inflation rate for June. According to David, the data will serve as the market’s main compass in reading the direction of global interest rate policy.
In last week’s trading, the IHSG closed 0.83 per cent higher at 5,924. However, David noted, foreign investors actually recorded net selling totalling Rp 1.7 trillion on the regular market.
Meanwhile, the IHSG on Monday morning, 13 July 2026, as quoted by Antara, moved higher amid market players monitoring the valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and geopolitical developments in the Middle East region.
The IHSG opened 10.36 points, or 0.17 per cent, higher at 5,934. Meanwhile, the group of 45 leading stocks, or the LQ45 Index, rose 0.03 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 589.28.
David explained that the high geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to adopt a risk-off stance and become more conservative in managing their portfolios. As a result, global fund flows are now being massively redirected to safe haven assets deemed more stable and resilient, such as gold bars and the US dollar.
Meanwhile, from the domestic side, the IHSG’s movement last week was influenced by the realisation of the state budget (APBN) deficit in the first half of 2026. The government reported an APBN deficit of Rp 196.5 trillion in the first half of this year, equivalent to 0.76 per cent of gross domestic product.
Although still within safe limits, David reminded that state spending growing faster than revenue still sends a signal of vigilance for the fiscal authorities. “This situation requires the government to manage state financing far more tightly and selectively in the second half of this year,” he said.