Megawati's forthcoming presidency

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The legislature's decision of May 30, 2001 to call for a People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) special session can be regarded as the final step to end Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency. It will assess his accountability and a rejection by the MPR will lead to his removal from office. There is no other way out for the incumbent President except to tender his resignation.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will succeed him as president. Not only does she have the largest faction in the House of Representatives and in the MPR, but she also enjoys the support of most of the other political parties. And public opinion expects her to take the presidency soon albeit doubts about her capability and policies abound. So far she has not been very open as a leader.

The first looming doubt is whether she can succeed Abdurrahman without a big upheaval breaking out in the country. Since the President's brinkmanship in the last few months has been opposed by the political elite, the Indonesian Military (TNI) leadership and public opinion, Megawati's takeover of the presidency can be expected to be relatively peaceful.

The other doubt is whether can she do a better job than Abdurrahman. Also, can she manage to overcome Indonesia's deep and multifaceted crises? She may be able to bring an immediate consistency of policies at the top, and that is important for a start, because one of Abdurrahman's serious flaws is his capriciousness.

In comparison, Megawati is more like former president Ronald Reagan than Cory Aquino. She has conviction and a sense of destiny about Indonesia's future greatness. She has charisma partly derived from her father. That is also important if she has to convince people to make necessary sacrifices to overcome the crises. She has had 15 years of experience as a political leader, especially during the last few years of the Soeharto regime.

However, she is still untested and also unknown as a leader who is on top of issues of government. She is likely to make big decisions based on the advice of her team, and will fully leave the implementation up to her ministers. Therefore, her team of advisors and ministers is going to be very important indeed.

So far she has a few good personal advisors and assistants, and she already resorts to some people outside her close-knit entourage and political party for advice. Especially on the drafting of the new budget, which had to undergo dramatic cuts, she did listen to some old technocrats like Emil Salim. This is a good sign, because it was earlier questioned whether she would do it. This outreach to people outside her own close advisors and party is critically important.

Personally, she does not easily get along with new people, while at the same time her own party and close associates are limited in their capabilities to assist her as president. So she has to reach out to others. She needs to have a national Cabinet composed of able members of the major political parties because she needs support from a comfortable majority in the House and from public opinion. At the same time, her economic team should be solid, comprising people who can work together.

The Cabinet should be able to create an entirely new atmosphere to give the people renewed hope. Competence is the key, but credibility is critical to its success. The Cabinet members should demonstrate honesty and incorruptibility since there are doubts among some non-government organizations on Megawati's commitment to good governance and her resoluteness to eradicate corruption.

Her own husband has been alluded to that effect. Both of them have to correct that negative impression, because even the perception, and smell of corruption, collusion and nepotism are no more acceptable by Indonesians as the case of Abdurrahman has shown.

There are three major questions about Megawati's views and ideas. The first is on the economy; specifically whether she will maintain the country's open economic policies based on the market system, or will she reintroduce her father's nationalistic and autarchic policies? Her interviews show that she understands the need to keep the economy open. This has been confirmed in her party's platform.

But she has also stressed the importance of social justice and the need to correct the excesses of a globalized economy. Her willingness to listen to the technocrats, who are basically neoclassics, only confirmed her basic philosophy to keep the economy open. In fact her feud with her sisters has been on her unwillingness to adopt Sukarno's ideas in full.

The second question relates to the challenge of regional conflicts, especially Aceh. Will she use a political or military approach in resolving them? She has been reported as having confided in others that those conflicts can only be solved politically, because it could not be solved even at the height of Soeharto's military might. And if TNI has to be withdrawn from Aceh to make a final solution possible, so be it.

The third question is on her views on the role of the TNI in Indonesia's future. She is well-respected by the TNI leadership and seems to be close enough to them. She is well aware of the need for a strong TNI as a state instrument to maintain Indonesia's unity.

It should be noted, however, that in the past she experienced ill-treatment by the TNI, similar to the experience of her father when Soeharto took over in 1966, and that experience affected her as a person. In addition, she herself had to endure mistreatments from the military under Soeharto's presidency when she took over the party's leadership. Therefore, she is convinced that civilian and democratic control of the TNI is critically important, yet their consolidation as a state apparatus is also a must.

Indonesia's problems are huge and the crises is deep and multi-faceted, therefore, it is unrealistic to expect a quick solution under Megawati's presidency. At the very least Indonesia will have a new chance and a new beginning to find necessary solutions.

The writer is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.