Megawati's forthcoming presidency

Megawati's forthcoming presidency

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The legislature's decision of May 30, 2001 to
call for a People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) special session
can be regarded as the final step to end Abdurrahman Wahid's
presidency. It will assess his accountability and a rejection by
the MPR will lead to his removal from office. There is no other
way out for the incumbent President except to tender his
resignation.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Vice President
Megawati Soekarnoputri will succeed him as president. Not only
does she have the largest faction in the House of Representatives
and in the MPR, but she also enjoys the support of most of the
other political parties. And public opinion expects her to take
the presidency soon albeit doubts about her capability and
policies abound. So far she has not been very open as a leader.

The first looming doubt is whether she can succeed Abdurrahman
without a big upheaval breaking out in the country. Since the
President's brinkmanship in the last few months has been opposed
by the political elite, the Indonesian Military (TNI) leadership
and public opinion, Megawati's takeover of the presidency can be
expected to be relatively peaceful.

The other doubt is whether can she do a better job than
Abdurrahman. Also, can she manage to overcome Indonesia's deep
and multifaceted crises? She may be able to bring an immediate
consistency of policies at the top, and that is important for a
start, because one of Abdurrahman's serious flaws is his
capriciousness.

In comparison, Megawati is more like former president Ronald
Reagan than Cory Aquino. She has conviction and a sense of
destiny about Indonesia's future greatness. She has charisma
partly derived from her father. That is also important if she has
to convince people to make necessary sacrifices to overcome the
crises. She has had 15 years of experience as a political leader,
especially during the last few years of the Soeharto regime.

However, she is still untested and also unknown as a leader
who is on top of issues of government. She is likely to make big
decisions based on the advice of her team, and will fully leave
the implementation up to her ministers. Therefore, her team of
advisors and ministers is going to be very important indeed.

So far she has a few good personal advisors and assistants,
and she already resorts to some people outside her close-knit
entourage and political party for advice. Especially on the
drafting of the new budget, which had to undergo dramatic cuts,
she did listen to some old technocrats like Emil Salim. This is a
good sign, because it was earlier questioned whether she would do
it. This outreach to people outside her own close advisors and
party is critically important.

Personally, she does not easily get along with new people,
while at the same time her own party and close associates are
limited in their capabilities to assist her as president. So she
has to reach out to others. She needs to have a national Cabinet
composed of able members of the major political parties because
she needs support from a comfortable majority in the House and
from public opinion. At the same time, her economic team should
be solid, comprising people who can work together.

The Cabinet should be able to create an entirely new
atmosphere to give the people renewed hope. Competence is the
key, but credibility is critical to its success. The Cabinet
members should demonstrate honesty and incorruptibility since
there are doubts among some non-government organizations on
Megawati's commitment to good governance and her resoluteness to
eradicate corruption.

Her own husband has been alluded to that effect. Both of them
have to correct that negative impression, because even the
perception, and smell of corruption, collusion and nepotism are
no more acceptable by Indonesians as the case of Abdurrahman has
shown.

There are three major questions about Megawati's views and
ideas. The first is on the economy; specifically whether she will
maintain the country's open economic policies based on the market
system, or will she reintroduce her father's nationalistic and
autarchic policies? Her interviews show that she understands the
need to keep the economy open. This has been confirmed in her
party's platform.

But she has also stressed the importance of social justice and
the need to correct the excesses of a globalized economy. Her
willingness to listen to the technocrats, who are basically
neoclassics, only confirmed her basic philosophy to keep the
economy open. In fact her feud with her sisters has been on her
unwillingness to adopt Sukarno's ideas in full.

The second question relates to the challenge of regional
conflicts, especially Aceh. Will she use a political or military
approach in resolving them? She has been reported as having
confided in others that those conflicts can only be solved
politically, because it could not be solved even at the height of
Soeharto's military might. And if TNI has to be withdrawn from
Aceh to make a final solution possible, so be it.

The third question is on her views on the role of the TNI in
Indonesia's future. She is well-respected by the TNI leadership
and seems to be close enough to them. She is well aware of the
need for a strong TNI as a state instrument to maintain
Indonesia's unity.

It should be noted, however, that in the past she experienced
ill-treatment by the TNI, similar to the experience of her father
when Soeharto took over in 1966, and that experience affected her
as a person. In addition, she herself had to endure mistreatments
from the military under Soeharto's presidency when she took over
the party's leadership. Therefore, she is convinced that civilian
and democratic control of the TNI is critically important, yet
their consolidation as a state apparatus is also a must.

Indonesia's problems are huge and the crises is deep and
multi-faceted, therefore, it is unrealistic to expect a quick
solution under Megawati's presidency. At the very least Indonesia
will have a new chance and a new beginning to find necessary
solutions.

The writer is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Center
for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.