Megawati's chance very slim

Megawati's chance very slim

A recent controversy surrounding the religious status of
presidential candidate Megawati Soekarnoputri has turned out to
be a kind of Pandora's Box for her. It has brought about not only
a host of new problems but also renewed public attention to her
previously known weaknesses and shortcomings.

If Megawati is a Moslem, she should realize that although the
Koran enjoins Moslems to respect people of other religious
faiths, it does not instruct them, for instance, to pray
according to Hindu ritual in a Hindu temple as she did. On the
other hand, if she is a Hindu, as suggested by the prima facie
evidence of her praying in the temple, she is still for sure
entitled to be a presidential candidate as there is no law in the
country that bars a non-Moslem from becoming president. But the
question is, as State Minister for Food and Horticulture Prof.
Dr. A.M. Saefuddin rightly pointed out, would the Indonesian
electorate, which is overwhelmingly Moslem, vote a non-Moslem to
the highest office in the land?

This is clearly a practical question about who an electorate
will choose in a democratically held election, and not about any
perceived slight on Hindus or Hinduism. By analogy, to expect a
non-Moslem to be the next president of Indonesia is as
unrealistic as to expect a Moslem to be the prime minister of
Hindu India or the president of Catholic Philippines or Orthodox
Russian Federation, as Moslems constitute only about 10 percent
of the population in each of those countries (for comparison,
Hindus make up 1.8 percent of Indonesia's population).

One of Megawati's faults is certainly her heavy dependence on
her late father's charisma, which helps to create a personality
cult about the father and herself. However, this cultism is not
only undemocratic but could be counterproductive to her
presidential ambitions because the father is also known to have
committed many political mistakes and blunders. Another
shortcoming of Megawati is her unfortunate lack of professional
or tertiary qualifications, which are certainly needed by an
Indonesian president of the 21st century.

It seems to me that Megawati's relative lack of sophistication
is sadly reflected by her remaining unresponsive on many
occasions. For instance, when Amien Rais of the National Mandate
Party and A.M. Saefuddin of the United Development Party
challenged her to a public debate, she chose not to react.
Similarly, when various political leaders were intensively
protesting or debating on such important events or allegations as
the Banyuwangi killings, Freeport corruption scandal, Soeharto's
unlawful wealth or mass killings of civilians in Aceh province,
again, Megawati elected to be completely silent. Likewise, when
Amien Rais and other politicians, as well as thousands of
students, were busy organizing or taking part in proreform
demonstrations in Jakarta last May, Megawati was nowhere to be
heard or seen.

In view of the adverse factors mentioned above, including the
controversy about her religious status, I think Megawati's party,
PDI Perjuangan, will gain only about 10 percent to 15 percent of
the votes in next year's election. Her supporters are expected to
come mainly from the following two groups: (1) non-Moslems,
numbering about 12 percent of the population or electorate, and
(2) purely nominal Moslems, also known as abangan Moslems. These
apparently syncretic Moslem diehards have recently decreased in
number and today probably account for about 5 percent of the
population. Megawati will possibly try to form a coalition with
other parties but her chance of becoming the next president is
very slim. As I see it, as long as Megawati is in charge, PDI
Perjuangan will remain a relatively minor party in the
foreseeable future.

MASLI ARMAN

Jakarta