Megawati's chance very slim
A recent controversy surrounding the religious status of presidential candidate Megawati Soekarnoputri has turned out to be a kind of Pandora's Box for her. It has brought about not only a host of new problems but also renewed public attention to her previously known weaknesses and shortcomings.
If Megawati is a Moslem, she should realize that although the Koran enjoins Moslems to respect people of other religious faiths, it does not instruct them, for instance, to pray according to Hindu ritual in a Hindu temple as she did. On the other hand, if she is a Hindu, as suggested by the prima facie evidence of her praying in the temple, she is still for sure entitled to be a presidential candidate as there is no law in the country that bars a non-Moslem from becoming president. But the question is, as State Minister for Food and Horticulture Prof. Dr. A.M. Saefuddin rightly pointed out, would the Indonesian electorate, which is overwhelmingly Moslem, vote a non-Moslem to the highest office in the land?
This is clearly a practical question about who an electorate will choose in a democratically held election, and not about any perceived slight on Hindus or Hinduism. By analogy, to expect a non-Moslem to be the next president of Indonesia is as unrealistic as to expect a Moslem to be the prime minister of Hindu India or the president of Catholic Philippines or Orthodox Russian Federation, as Moslems constitute only about 10 percent of the population in each of those countries (for comparison, Hindus make up 1.8 percent of Indonesia's population).
One of Megawati's faults is certainly her heavy dependence on her late father's charisma, which helps to create a personality cult about the father and herself. However, this cultism is not only undemocratic but could be counterproductive to her presidential ambitions because the father is also known to have committed many political mistakes and blunders. Another shortcoming of Megawati is her unfortunate lack of professional or tertiary qualifications, which are certainly needed by an Indonesian president of the 21st century.
It seems to me that Megawati's relative lack of sophistication is sadly reflected by her remaining unresponsive on many occasions. For instance, when Amien Rais of the National Mandate Party and A.M. Saefuddin of the United Development Party challenged her to a public debate, she chose not to react. Similarly, when various political leaders were intensively protesting or debating on such important events or allegations as the Banyuwangi killings, Freeport corruption scandal, Soeharto's unlawful wealth or mass killings of civilians in Aceh province, again, Megawati elected to be completely silent. Likewise, when Amien Rais and other politicians, as well as thousands of students, were busy organizing or taking part in proreform demonstrations in Jakarta last May, Megawati was nowhere to be heard or seen.
In view of the adverse factors mentioned above, including the controversy about her religious status, I think Megawati's party, PDI Perjuangan, will gain only about 10 percent to 15 percent of the votes in next year's election. Her supporters are expected to come mainly from the following two groups: (1) non-Moslems, numbering about 12 percent of the population or electorate, and (2) purely nominal Moslems, also known as abangan Moslems. These apparently syncretic Moslem diehards have recently decreased in number and today probably account for about 5 percent of the population. Megawati will possibly try to form a coalition with other parties but her chance of becoming the next president is very slim. As I see it, as long as Megawati is in charge, PDI Perjuangan will remain a relatively minor party in the foreseeable future.
MASLI ARMAN
Jakarta