Megawati will survive term, faces formidable challenges: analysts
Megawati will survive term, faces formidable challenges: analysts
Martin Abbugao Agence France-Presse Singapore
Megawati Soekarnoputri is likely to complete her first term as Indonesian president, but she faces formidable challenges ranging from the economy to Islamic radicals, analysts said here on Thursday in an assessment of her first 100 days in office.
Military and legal reforms, and the issue of decentralization of power will also test the president, they told a seminar hosted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
Megawati must shed her "mother-of-the-nation" image and take a more active leadership role in a country with 360 regions -- many of them bigger than Singapore -- and 213 million people, speakers said.
The threat posed by religious extremists, who have held a series of demonstrations in Jakarta since the U.S. launched bombing strikes against terrorist targets in Afghanistan, should not be exaggerated as these groups are a minority, they added.
"I think she will stay at least until 2004," said Mochtar Pabottingi, a senior fellow at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, noting that no strong challenger has emerged.
"She also carries with her the political capital of being accepted by the military."
However, Mochtar said he doubted Megawati's "capacity to do away with the country's political, economic and legal crisis."
The two other presidents who guided the world's largest Muslim nation after the fall of former strongman Soeharto in 1998 -- B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid -- both had their terms cut short as they failed to successfuly tackle their country's problems.
Mochtar praised Megawati's sincerity and humility, her stand against corruption, an "aversion to self-advertisement", and her cordial relations with the military as pluses during her rule.
But he said the housewife-turned-president was "vulnerable to manipulation", was too timid and relished her symbolic role as a mother of the nation. She also faced a potential challenge from her more articulate younger sister, Mochtar said.
Jusuf Wanandi, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, said Megawati has yet to provide clear leadership to the military at a time when the armed forces is reassessing its role following Indonesia's transition from authoritarian rule.
"With the TNI (armed forces) leadership in disarray, leadership from civilian leaders is critical," Jusuf said.
"However, this has not been provided as yet by the current presidency while divisions in the political elite on the reforms in the TNI continues to grow," he said.
The military is at a crossroads about its role, especially after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and amid the US- led war against terrorism.
"They are watching how small groups of Muslim extremists have taken over the national agenda and put the future of Indonesia in jeopardy, without being able to do anything.
"One reason is that it is not clear what Megawati's policies really are, since she has not come out in public to explain it," Jusuf said.
Azyumardi Azra, president of the Indonesia's state-run Institute for Islamic Studies, said the threat posed by the country's hardline Muslims was limited despite the media publicity they have gained.
"Firstly, hardliners are only splinter groups among the bulk majority of Muslim mainstream. One should not exaggerate the influence of these hardliners," he told the conference.
Secondly, a majority of Indonesia's Muslims "continue to support" the president, he said.
"I believe President Megawati will survive the challenges posed by Muslim hardliner groups. But at the same time, she could be made busy by their continued threatening activities," he said.
Andi Mallangareng, a lecturer at the Institute of Public Administration and an expert on autonomy, warned against Jakarta backtracking on giving the regions autonomy.