Megawati will survive term, faces formidable challenges: analysts
Megawati will survive term, faces formidable challenges: analysts
Martin Abbugao
Agence France-Presse
Singapore
Megawati Soekarnoputri is likely to complete her first term as
Indonesian president, but she faces formidable challenges ranging
from the economy to Islamic radicals, analysts said here on
Thursday in an assessment of her first 100 days in office.
Military and legal reforms, and the issue of decentralization
of power will also test the president, they told a seminar hosted
by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
Megawati must shed her "mother-of-the-nation" image and take a
more active leadership role in a country with 360 regions -- many
of them bigger than Singapore -- and 213 million people, speakers
said.
The threat posed by religious extremists, who have held a
series of demonstrations in Jakarta since the U.S. launched
bombing strikes against terrorist targets in Afghanistan, should
not be exaggerated as these groups are a minority, they added.
"I think she will stay at least until 2004," said Mochtar
Pabottingi, a senior fellow at the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences, noting that no strong challenger has emerged.
"She also carries with her the political capital of being
accepted by the military."
However, Mochtar said he doubted Megawati's "capacity to do
away with the country's political, economic and legal crisis."
The two other presidents who guided the world's largest Muslim
nation after the fall of former strongman Soeharto in 1998 --
B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid -- both had their terms cut
short as they failed to successfuly tackle their country's
problems.
Mochtar praised Megawati's sincerity and humility, her stand
against corruption, an "aversion to self-advertisement", and her
cordial relations with the military as pluses during her rule.
But he said the housewife-turned-president was "vulnerable to
manipulation", was too timid and relished her symbolic role as a
mother of the nation. She also faced a potential challenge from
her more articulate younger sister, Mochtar said.
Jusuf Wanandi, of the Centre for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, said Megawati has yet to provide clear
leadership to the military at a time when the armed forces is
reassessing its role following Indonesia's transition from
authoritarian rule.
"With the TNI (armed forces) leadership in disarray,
leadership from civilian leaders is critical," Jusuf said.
"However, this has not been provided as yet by the current
presidency while divisions in the political elite on the reforms
in the TNI continues to grow," he said.
The military is at a crossroads about its role, especially
after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and amid the US-
led war against terrorism.
"They are watching how small groups of Muslim extremists have
taken over the national agenda and put the future of Indonesia in
jeopardy, without being able to do anything.
"One reason is that it is not clear what Megawati's policies
really are, since she has not come out in public to explain it,"
Jusuf said.
Azyumardi Azra, president of the Indonesia's state-run
Institute for Islamic Studies, said the threat posed by the
country's hardline Muslims was limited despite the media
publicity they have gained.
"Firstly, hardliners are only splinter groups among the bulk
majority of Muslim mainstream. One should not exaggerate the
influence of these hardliners," he told the conference.
Secondly, a majority of Indonesia's Muslims "continue to
support" the president, he said.
"I believe President Megawati will survive the challenges
posed by Muslim hardliner groups. But at the same time, she could
be made busy by their continued threatening activities," he said.
Andi Mallangareng, a lecturer at the Institute of Public
Administration and an expert on autonomy, warned against Jakarta
backtracking on giving the regions autonomy.