Megawati too strong to topple

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta/Makassar

Could the recent waves of anti-U.S. street demonstration lead to the downfall of Megawati government?

Political observers Andi A. Mallarangeng and Maswadi Rauf do not believe so. The academics say they see no indication that the protesters and their backers aim to bring her down.

"The Megawati government is too strong to topple," said Maswadi, a sociopolitical teacher at the University of Indonesia.

There have been concerns that the growing anti-U.S. sentiment expressed in widespread, sometimes rowdy, street demonstrations could spell the end of the two-month-old Megawati coalition government.

Radical Muslim groups have accused Megawati of offering too much to the U.S. Her refusal to condemn the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan has also been called anti-Islam.

Mallarangeng said Megawati's political foes knew it would not be easy to exploit her difference of opinion with hard-liners for political gain.

"Gus Dur (Megawati's predecessor, Abdurrahman Wahid), whose party had fewer seats in the House of Representatives, could be toppled only after 20 months of intense political efforts," he said in Makassar, South Sulawesi.

Gus Dur's National Awakening Party (PKB) has 57 seats in the House while Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) has 185.

Mallarangeng said the Afghan-American issue had posed a problem, but Megawati still enjoyed considerable legislative and grassroot support.

Maswadi stressed that forcing the President to step down would not be easy because her party was the largest in the House.

"If they have ability to topple her, why not try? But I don't think they can ...," Maswadi told the Post on Friday.

Maswadi, however, had a note of warning for the President. "Megawati should be sensitive to aspirations from the House and the public, a quality that Gus Dur did not have."

He pointed out that Gus Dur's biggest blunder was insisting on imposing a state of emergency, which did not work because it had no support and it backfired.

Legislator Ibrahim Ambong, chairman of House Commission I for foreign affairs, also said he saw no systematic attempts to overthrow Megawati.

"I have seen numerous rallies staged in solidarity for Muslims in Afghanistan. I don't think the escalating protests aim to undermine her," Ambong said at a discussion aired by state radio station RRI on Friday.

Ambong said there was significant difference between the government's stand on the Afghan issue and the expectations of protesting Muslim groups.

Angry Muslim have accused the government of doing too little to pressure the U.S. to terminate its military strikes. "I think, though, that this could affect the legitimacy of the President. That's why dialog is urgently needed," he added.

National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Alwi Shihab has said that it was unfair to assess Megawati's performance when she had been in power for only two months.

"We should give Megawati more of a chance to prove she is capable of leading the country before we make any assessment. College students are given one semester before they have their first assessment," Alwi added.