Megawati too strong to topple

Megawati too strong to topple

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta/Makassar

Could the recent waves of anti-U.S. street demonstration lead
to the downfall of Megawati government?

Political observers Andi A. Mallarangeng and Maswadi Rauf do
not believe so. The academics say they see no indication that the
protesters and their backers aim to bring her down.

"The Megawati government is too strong to topple," said
Maswadi, a sociopolitical teacher at the University of Indonesia.

There have been concerns that the growing anti-U.S. sentiment
expressed in widespread, sometimes rowdy, street demonstrations
could spell the end of the two-month-old Megawati coalition
government.

Radical Muslim groups have accused Megawati of offering too
much to the U.S. Her refusal to condemn the U.S. military
campaign in Afghanistan has also been called anti-Islam.

Mallarangeng said Megawati's political foes knew it would not
be easy to exploit her difference of opinion with hard-liners for
political gain.

"Gus Dur (Megawati's predecessor, Abdurrahman Wahid), whose
party had fewer seats in the House of Representatives, could be
toppled only after 20 months of intense political efforts," he
said in Makassar, South Sulawesi.

Gus Dur's National Awakening Party (PKB) has 57 seats in the
House while Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI Perjuangan) has 185.

Mallarangeng said the Afghan-American issue had posed a
problem, but Megawati still enjoyed considerable legislative and
grassroot support.

Maswadi stressed that forcing the President to step down would
not be easy because her party was the largest in the House.

"If they have ability to topple her, why not try? But I don't
think they can ...," Maswadi told the Post on Friday.

Maswadi, however, had a note of warning for the President.
"Megawati should be sensitive to aspirations from the House and
the public, a quality that Gus Dur did not have."

He pointed out that Gus Dur's biggest blunder was insisting on
imposing a state of emergency, which did not work because it had
no support and it backfired.

Legislator Ibrahim Ambong, chairman of House Commission I for
foreign affairs, also said he saw no systematic attempts to
overthrow Megawati.

"I have seen numerous rallies staged in solidarity for Muslims
in Afghanistan. I don't think the escalating protests aim to
undermine her," Ambong said at a discussion aired by state radio
station RRI on Friday.

Ambong said there was significant difference between the
government's stand on the Afghan issue and the expectations of
protesting Muslim groups.

Angry Muslim have accused the government of doing too little
to pressure the U.S. to terminate its military strikes. "I think,
though, that this could affect the legitimacy of the President.
That's why dialog is urgently needed," he added.

National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Alwi Shihab has said
that it was unfair to assess Megawati's performance when she had
been in power for only two months.

"We should give Megawati more of a chance to prove she is
capable of leading the country before we make any assessment.
College students are given one semester before they have their
first assessment," Alwi added.