Megawati passes 2002 with good fortune

Fabiola Desy Unidjaja, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Despite many flaws and disappointments, President Megawati Soekarnoputri had a few major achievements in 2002 that will be recorded in history books.

Ending this year with the signing of a landmark peace agreement with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), Megawati enters 2003 with the confidence that she will be able to handle any challenge the new year may bring.

Her administration also passed the test of dealing with terrorism, thanks to hard work by the police in unraveling the deadly Bali bombing that killed over 190 people and injured some 300 others, mostly foreign vacationers.

Although Megawati failed to communicate her policies in dealing with terrorism, she was able to solicit support from the Muslim community in fighting terrorism, which threatened to plunge the country into another economic crisis.

The sealing of the peace agreement with GAM, which has been fighting for an independent state since 1976, and the arrest of people believed to be responsible for the deadly Oct. 12 Bali attack, eclipsed her weaknesses and failures in 2002.

There is no doubt that Megawati -- who assumed the presidential post after the People's Consultative Assembly, the country's highest law-making body, removed Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid for incompetence in July 2001 -- owes her success to Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and National Police chief Gen. Da'i Bachtiar. The two high-ranking officials demonstrated strong commitment in dealing with the two issues, allowing President Megawati to look good before her domestic constituents and the international community.

Despite her successes, people's trust and support for her administration continued to diminish throughout 2002 as reflected in a number of polls carried out by several research agencies.

And Megawati has only herself to blame. Megawati continued to dash people's hopes for reform and chose to compromise with New Order forces for the sake of political stability.

Her political backing for the reelection of Sutiyoso as Jakarta governor and for Akbar Tandjung to retain his position of House of Representatives speaker are glaring examples of her compromising attitude. The military, represented by Sutiyoso, and Golkar and its New Order regime, by Akbar, have long been considered the prime enemies of the reform movement.

Another compromise she made was when she decided to issue release and discharge (R&D) papers for bad debtors who cost the country some Rp 158 trillion in emergency funds disbursed at the beginning of economic crisis in 1997.

At the family level, Megawati has always been surrounded by rumors regarding the business activities of her husband Taufik Kiemas and daughter Puan Maharani.

Although, no one is willing to file legal complaints against the first family, stories about Taufik and Puan are often discussed in business circles.

Megawati showed little sensitivity to the suffering of hundreds of thousands of Indonesian expelled from Malaysia because of visa violations.

Her mysterious way of thinking and silence reminded the people of former president Soeharto, who also never explained the reasons behind many unpopular decisions.

Officials often say that Megawati never really takes the lead, as she has never taken charge of important matters and has made no bold decisions to overcome the economic crisis.

A palace source once told The Jakarta Post that Megawati did nothing to put an end to the bickering between Susilo and Vice President Hamzah Haz during a Cabinet meeting after the Bali blasts.

"She just sat there and said not a word. It was Minister of Transportation Agum Gumelar who tried to end the exchange of words," the source said.

That two of her senior aides would display so little respect for her demonstrates how weak she is in leading her administration.

In a poll conducted by Kompas daily in July, a majority of the public expressed disappointment with Megawati's leadership by rating her administration's performance in political reform and the judiciary as poor.

The poll also reported that 85 percent of the respondents were dissatisfied with her administration's efforts to eradicate rampant corruption.

One of the most interesting findings in the survey is that 74 percent of the respondents who claimed to be Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) voters in the 1999 election expressed dissatisfaction with Megawati's government.

In another survey by the Center for Political Studies (CPS), the majority of those polled considered Megawati unfit to retain power, with only 8.52 percent of the respondents in favor of her, even below Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono with 10.83 percent.

However, despite public disappointment, Megawati seems to be content with her leadership style and sometimes lashes out at her critics, saying that analysts just talk and never provide any solutions for the country's ailments.

It is very likely that Megawati's rating will improve after the signing of peace agreement with GAM in Aceh and the arrest of the suspected terrorists responsible for the Bali bombings.

One notable change after the government embarked on the antiterrorism drive is the disbanding of two radical groups that often took the law into their own hands: Laskar Jihad and the Islam Defenders Front (FPI).

The Acehnese were filled with joy when the peace agreement was signed on Dec. 9 as it brings new hope for a better life after 26 years of conflict in the province.

However, the two successes are not proof that Megawati has improved her style of leadership.

What are her chances in 2003 when the political climate is expected to heighten in view of preparations for elections in 2004? Only Megawati knows the answer.