Megawati is capable of confounding critics
Megawati is capable of confounding critics
By Richard Woolcott
SYDNEY, Australia: Megawati Soekarnoputri, who was sworn in on Monday evening as President of Indonesia, has the capacity to surprise her Australian and Western critics. She offers Indonesia a fresh opportunity after the failed Abdurrahman Wahid presidency.
In January 1998 I wrote in a Sydney newspaper that although Megawati was "a focus for urban dissent", she had "no chance of becoming president of Indonesia". I added she had no experience in government and would not be acceptable to the main centers of influence and power in Indonesia. I was proved wrong this week. At the time, however, that was a widely accepted assessment.
The important issue now, however, is what sort of a President will she be for a country of such importance to Australia. I have noticed in recent weeks, as support for Wahid's presidency ebbed away, that the Australian media has generally depicted Megawati as likely to be a poor replacement. She has variously been dismissed as a "housewife" with little grasp of the requirements of effective political leadership, a nationalist who would seek to repress secessionist movements, a leader who is not well disposed towards Australia, and a weak presidential prospect who would be a front for the Indonesian Military (TNI).
I have known Megawati since the 1980s and most recently called on her in Jakarta last March. I consider that the media she has received in Australia has been, as is often the case on Indonesian issues, excessively negative. I was surprised during our meeting at the extent to which, as vice president, she had been quietly preparing for the presidency. She was more confident, ready to discuss policy issues, and her English had improved. She was very much the president-in-waiting.
Megawati enjoys widespread popularity in Indonesia. Her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) is the largest party in parliament and there are many who feel she should not have been maneuvered out of the presidency in 1999. It may surprise many Australians, who have seen her as a sphinx and too detached, that to Indonesians, particularly Javanese and Balinese, she has charisma.
Megawati is conscious of the paramount importance to Indonesia of economic recovery and the need for revived foreign investment. She acknowledges the need for an open economy and I believe she will reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, and resist pressures for protectionism and anti-globalization. She has been taking economic advice for some time from experienced technocrats, including former minister Emil Salim.
As far as secessionist movements in Aceh and Irian Jaya are concerned, she will strongly support the maintenance of Indonesia's territorial integrity. She was unhappy with the loss of East Timor and the style and profile of Australia's role in Interfet. She believes that Australia's actions have been a catalyst for the fragmentation of Indonesia and other parts of Asia. But she is not anti-Australian.
During our recent conversation she said that although government-to-government relations were "troubled", relations between Australia and Indonesia would always be important. We were neighbors and both governments needed to work on improving relations. Significantly, she agreed that Australia, Indonesia and an independent East Timor would need to co-operate closely to help establish a stable state with a sound relationship with Indonesia. I believe she will meet East Timorese leaders such as Xanana Gusmao and Jose Ramos Horta in the near future.
The idea that she would be a figurehead for a revived TNI is also overstated. Whoever is the president of Indonesia needs a reformed but effective TNI. As the only effective nationwide institution, the TNI remains the guarantor of state security. I am told by a close adviser to Megawati that she believes strongly in civilian and democratic control of the armed forces.
Megawati is now much stronger and more experienced politically than she was three years ago. She is also more focused on Indonesia's need for political stability and economic recovery than she was before the fall of Soeharto and the defeat of president B. J. Habibie. When Wahid visited Australia recently, his presidency was already doomed. It would be a wise and useful gesture now for John Howard to take advantage of his visit to Japan next week to call on Megawati on the way, if possible.
The scale of Indonesia's political, ethnic, religious and economic problems is daunting. It would be unrealistic to expect rapid progress towards solving them under Megawati. But she does offer new hope and a fresh opportunity following Wahid's failure. Already the Indonesian rupiah has strengthened and the Indonesian stock market is rising.
The writer is the founding director of the AustralAsia Centre of the Asia Society and former chairman of the Australia Indonesia Institute.
-- The Australian