Megawati is capable of confounding critics

Megawati is capable of confounding critics

By Richard Woolcott

SYDNEY, Australia: Megawati Soekarnoputri, who was sworn in on
Monday evening as President of Indonesia, has the capacity to
surprise her Australian and Western critics. She offers Indonesia
a fresh opportunity after the failed Abdurrahman Wahid
presidency.

In January 1998 I wrote in a Sydney newspaper that although
Megawati was "a focus for urban dissent", she had "no chance of
becoming president of Indonesia". I added she had no experience
in government and would not be acceptable to the main centers of
influence and power in Indonesia. I was proved wrong this week.
At the time, however, that was a widely accepted assessment.

The important issue now, however, is what sort of a President
will she be for a country of such importance to Australia. I have
noticed in recent weeks, as support for Wahid's presidency ebbed
away, that the Australian media has generally depicted Megawati
as likely to be a poor replacement. She has variously been
dismissed as a "housewife" with little grasp of the requirements
of effective political leadership, a nationalist who would seek
to repress secessionist movements, a leader who is not well
disposed towards Australia, and a weak presidential prospect who
would be a front for the Indonesian Military (TNI).

I have known Megawati since the 1980s and most recently called
on her in Jakarta last March. I consider that the media she has
received in Australia has been, as is often the case on
Indonesian issues, excessively negative. I was surprised during
our meeting at the extent to which, as vice president, she had
been quietly preparing for the presidency. She was more
confident, ready to discuss policy issues, and her English had
improved. She was very much the president-in-waiting.

Megawati enjoys widespread popularity in Indonesia. Her
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) is the
largest party in parliament and there are many who feel she
should not have been maneuvered out of the presidency in 1999. It
may surprise many Australians, who have seen her as a sphinx and
too detached, that to Indonesians, particularly Javanese and
Balinese, she has charisma.

Megawati is conscious of the paramount importance to Indonesia
of economic recovery and the need for revived foreign investment.
She acknowledges the need for an open economy and I believe she
will reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, and
resist pressures for protectionism and anti-globalization. She
has been taking economic advice for some time from experienced
technocrats, including former minister Emil Salim.

As far as secessionist movements in Aceh and Irian Jaya are
concerned, she will strongly support the maintenance of
Indonesia's territorial integrity. She was unhappy with the loss
of East Timor and the style and profile of Australia's role in
Interfet. She believes that Australia's actions have been a
catalyst for the fragmentation of Indonesia and other parts of
Asia. But she is not anti-Australian.

During our recent conversation she said that although
government-to-government relations were "troubled", relations
between Australia and Indonesia would always be important. We
were neighbors and both governments needed to work on improving
relations. Significantly, she agreed that Australia, Indonesia
and an independent East Timor would need to co-operate closely to
help establish a stable state with a sound relationship with
Indonesia. I believe she will meet East Timorese leaders such as
Xanana Gusmao and Jose Ramos Horta in the near future.

The idea that she would be a figurehead for a revived TNI is
also overstated. Whoever is the president of Indonesia needs a
reformed but effective TNI. As the only effective nationwide
institution, the TNI remains the guarantor of state security. I
am told by a close adviser to Megawati that she believes strongly
in civilian and democratic control of the armed forces.

Megawati is now much stronger and more experienced politically
than she was three years ago. She is also more focused on
Indonesia's need for political stability and economic recovery
than she was before the fall of Soeharto and the defeat of
president B. J. Habibie. When Wahid visited Australia recently,
his presidency was already doomed. It would be a wise and useful
gesture now for John Howard to take advantage of his visit to
Japan next week to call on Megawati on the way, if possible.

The scale of Indonesia's political, ethnic, religious and
economic problems is daunting. It would be unrealistic to expect
rapid progress towards solving them under Megawati. But she does
offer new hope and a fresh opportunity following Wahid's failure.
Already the Indonesian rupiah has strengthened and the Indonesian
stock market is rising.

The writer is the founding director of the AustralAsia Centre
of the Asia Society and former chairman of the Australia
Indonesia Institute.

-- The Australian