Megathrust-Tsunami Threatening Jakarta and Java? BMKG and Experts Provide Clarification

Social media has recently been abuzz with claims regarding the potential for a massive earthquake to shake Indonesia before the end of 2026. These claims were made by Frankie MacDonald, a Canadian amateur weather observer and content creator.

In a video uploaded to his YouTube channel, MacDonald suggested that the Java region, including Jakarta, could be impacted by an earthquake with a magnitude of between M7.0 and M9.0. He also warned the public to prepare for the potential impacts of such an earthquake. These statements have spread widely across social media, causing public concern, particularly as MacDonald’s predictions have previously been linked to seismic events in Indonesia.

To clarify the situation, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and various experts have repeatedly highlighted the potential for megathrust activity along the western boundary of Sumatra and in the Sunda Strait. According to the 2024 Indonesia Earthquake Source and Hazard Map, there are 14 megathrust zones distributed across Indonesia, including the Java Megathrust zone, which has a potential maximum magnitude of 9.1, and the West Java Megathrust zone, with a potential magnitude of 8.9.

The Sunda Strait and Mentawai-Siberut megathrust zones are of particular concern because these segments are believed to have not released their energy for hundreds of years. This condition is known as a ‘seismic gap’. Consequently, while a megathrust event in these segments is considered a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’, the timing cannot be predicted.