Median Survey: Gibran's Electability at 2%, KDM at 19.8%

A survey conducted by the Median institute shows that Prabowo Subianto still holds the top position in presidential candidate (Capres) electability, in both open-ended and semi-open-ended questions. However, his running mate, Gibranc Rakabuming Raka, lags far behind.

Meanwhile, Dedi Mulyadi and Anies Baswedan occupy the second and third positions, respectively, with relatively close electability scores.

Median’s Executive Director, Rico Marbun, stated that in the open-ended question format, Prabowo Subianto achieved an electability of 32.2 per cent.

Following him were Dedi Mulyadi with 19.8 per cent and Anies Baswedan with 19.5 per cent. “In the open-ended questions, Prabowo Subianto obtained 32.2 per cent, followed by Dedi Mulyadi at 19.8 per cent and Anies Baswedan at 19.5 per cent,” Rico said in a written statement on Tuesday (1/9).

Further down the list, the survey found Ganjar Pranowo at 4.5 per cent, followed by Sherly Tjoanda at 3.5 per cent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono at 2.3 per cent, Joko Widodo at 2.0 per cent, Gibran Rakabuming Raka at 2.0 per cent, Mahfud MD at 1.8 per cent, and Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa at 1.3 per cent.

Rico noted that the results were not significantly different in the semi-open-ended questions. Prabowo Subianto again secured the first position with 32.4 per cent electability.

“In the semi-open-ended questions, Prabow Subianto obtained 32.4 per cent. Dedi Mulyadi was in second place with 20.6 per cent and Anies Baswedan was in third with 20.5 per cent,” Rico remarked.

Subsequently, Ganjar Pranowo recorded 5.0 per cent, Sherly Tjoanda 4.1 per cent, Gibran Rakabuming Raka 2.6 per cent, Mahfud MD 2.1 per cent, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 2.0 per cent, Andika Perkasa 1.5 per cent, and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, also known as Ahok, at 1.2 per cent.

The Median survey was conducted via face-to-face interviews between 21 July and 2 August 2026. The survey population comprised all Indonesian citizens entitled to vote. The target sample size was 1,212 respondents, with a margin of error (MoE) of ±2.76 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.

Samples were selected randomly using a multi-stage random sampling method. Sample distribution was carried out proportionally based on provincial population and gender. To ensure data quality, quality control was performed on 20 per cent of the sample. Median stated that the survey results reflect the political dynamics occurring during the data collection period, specifically from 21 July to 2 August 2026.