Mayday Mayday! UAE's Secret Attack on Iran Could Spark New War
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The risk of direct involvement by Gulf states in a war against Iran has reportedly surged following the revelation that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) secretly launched a large-scale attack on Tehran.
This tension has been exacerbated by Kuwait’s claim of capturing four members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as they attempted a terrorist attack on Bubiyan Island.
Citing The Guardian, the UAE’s secret attack was reported as revenge for Iran’s earlier bombardment of their facilities. According to a Wall Street Journal report, one of the UAE attacks targeted Iran’s Lavan Island just before the ceasefire on 7 April was announced.
News of this secret military operation positions the UAE as Iran’s primary target if the current ceasefire ends. US President Donald Trump has even warned that the ceasefire is now on the brink due to Iran’s failure to offer concessions on its nuclear programme.
“This ceasefire is hanging by a thread,” Trump said on Monday (11/5/2026).
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has revealed that the cost of war with Iran has ballooned dramatically to nearly US$29 billion (Rp507.5 trillion). This figure has surged by about US$4 billion (Rp70 trillion) compared to estimates two weeks prior.
Intelligence reports have also uncovered evidence of the UAE using French-made Mirage fighter jets and Chinese-made Wing Loong drones in operations in Iranian territory. Although the UAE received defence support in the form of Iron Dome missile batteries from Israel via mediation by US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, this UAE military move has instead triggered diplomatic rifts among other Gulf states.
Saudi Arabia, through its former ambassador to the UN, Turki al-Faisal, emphasised the importance of restraint to avoid being ensnared in Israel’s plan to ignite a major war with Iran that could destroy the entire region. If a total war breaks out, Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, desalination plants, and Vision 2030 projects are at risk of total destruction.
“If Israel’s plan succeeds in igniting a war between us and Iran, this region will turn into a completely shattered state,” al-Faisal wrote.
Meanwhile, the impact of the previous Iranian attacks has crippled the UAE’s largest gas plant, Adnoc Gas, which is estimated not to operate fully until 2027.
Amid this chaos, a new bloc comprising Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar is beginning to form to avoid direct conflict with Iran while continuing to condemn Israel’s expansion in the area.