Mass reshuffle in China's Taiwan desk

Mass reshuffle in China's Taiwan desk

By Ching Cheong

SINGAPORE: Beijing recently launched a massive revamp of
institutions that deal with the Taiwan problem to ensure that
future policies are in sync with developments on the island.

The change followed a major stocktaking exercise by top
leaders when they went for their annual summer retreat in
Beidaihe to explore new approaches which they could take on the
Taiwan issue.

Although, officially, China stressed that the reshuffling was
part of an overall plan to rejuvenate its bureaucracy, many
observers linked it to the rise to power of the pro-independence
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which caught the Chinese
flat-footed. Sources said that Chinese President Jiang Zemin was
upset that cross-strait relations had degenerated during his
watch.

That there is now open talk in Taiwan of two Chinas where
previously there was agreement that there could only be one China
was cited as a major failure on the part of Chinese policy.

Hence the need for something to be done to redress the
situation. No stone was left unturned in the revamp.

Apart from the highest decision-making body, the Leading Group
on Taiwan, a unit under the Politburo chaired by President Jiang
himself, all other Taiwan-related institutions were not spared.

According to a source familiar with the revamp, the personnel
overhaul was based on three guiding principles: age,
professionalism and streamlining.

These were deemed necessary to meet the new challenges
following the ascendancy of a pro-independence government in
Taiwan.

The reshuffle started with the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of
the State Council, a ministerial-level organization responsible
for implementing Taiwan-related policies.

Its first deputy director, veteran Taiwan hand Tang Shubei,
69, was the first to go.

He also gave up his position as first vice-chairman of the
Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait (Arats), a
surrogate organization handling practical issues in the absence
of official ties across the strait.

Replacing him in Arats is Li Bingcai, 55, former mayor of the
city of Yangzhou in Jiangsu province, the hometown of the Chinese
President.

He also took up the position of first deputy director. Most
agreed that the current director, Chen Yunlin, 59, would also
have to take the rap and go.

He is likely to be replaced by the current Chinese Ambassador
to the United States, Li Zhaoxing, early next year after the
American presidential election.

Compared with Chen, who has an industrial background in the
north-east, Li's experience is much more relevant.

Obviously, Beijing figures that the American factor will
become more pronounced in the years to come and hence it needs an
old American hand to head its key office.

The TAO reshuffle included two new appointments to the posts
of vice-directors.

They are Zhou Mingwei, 45, former director of the Foreign
Affairs Department of Shanghai Municipal Government, and Maj.
Gen. Wang Zaixi, 53, of the Second Department (Intelligence) of
the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

After graduating from Fudan University, Shanghai, in 1984,
Zhou studied for his master's degree and his doctorate at Harvard
University from 1988 to 1992 and is considered an upcoming young
scholar with in-depth knowledge of the US.

Wang is a military officer with both diplomatic and academic
background.

He was a military attache at the Chinese embassy in Pakistan
and taught at the National Defense University.

Their appointments reflect the new thinking. Beijing sees
future Taiwan policy as a "simultaneous deployment of both
military and political struggles".

The new TAO team is capable of conducting ideological battles
on both the diplomatic and military fronts.

Wang is the first military officer since 1992 to head the
civilian TAO on a day-to-day basis.

The previous head of TAO with a military background was Gen.
Yang Side, a close associate of the then President Yang Shangkun.

With the relaxation of cross-strait relations following the
consensus on one-China reached in 1992, no military officer had
ever been posted to TAO.

The return now of a military officer marks the delicate change
in the situation.

While TAO is being beefed up with younger people with relevant
experience, Arats is being downgraded.

It used to have four deputy secretaries, but the number has
now been reduced to one. Where it had six departments, there are
now only three.

Slashing Arats suggests that Beijing is uncertain about the
future role of this surrogate organization.

It is interesting to note that while Wang Daohan, President
Jiang's mentor in a number of areas, remains the Arats chairman,
there are rumors that Politburo member Qian Qichen might replace
Wang, who is now 80.

By far the largest-scale reshuffling took place in the Taiwan-
related think-tank apparatus.

Sources said that it was the failure of think-tanks to grasp
accurately the Taiwan situation that caused the greatest
dissatisfaction.

At the moment, different policy branches, as well as academic
institutes, have their own research units on Taiwan, totaling
more than several dozen nationwide.

Yet, in the eyes of Jiang, they all failed.

Why did they all fail to warn the leadership of the
fundamental changes in the Taiwanese mentality when the Taiwan
issue was so crucial to China? To correct this situation, the
Chinese President decided to integrate think-tanks belonging to
different policy branches into a single powerful research center.

The Center for Research in Cross-Strait Relations was created
recently and is headed by Tang Shubei.

Its mission is to integrate and coordinate research and cross-
strait exchanges.

A number of institutions belonging to the PLA, the national
security ministry and the foreign ministry would be amalgamated
into the new center.

Jiang hopes that by streamlining research efforts, the quality
of studies on Taiwan will be upgraded.

At the same time, a new Taiwan Research Institute,
specializing in the study of the DPP, was created in the United
University of Beijing and is headed by Xu Dongbo, a rare expert
in DPP affairs.

Clearly, for the first time, Beijing has become serious about
understanding the new ruling party in Taiwan.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network