Markets on Edge Awaiting Critical News from Japan to the US
Diverse sentiments from both domestic and international sources are set to dominate next week. These range from the announcement of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, or The Fed, to the cum-date for dividends from mining issuers.
Announcement of Interest Rates by the Bank of Japan
The first key sentiment arrives on 28 April 2026, with the announcement of interest rates by the Bank of Japan. According to the consensus from Trading Economics, Japan’s central bank interest rate will remain at 0.75% this time.
Markets anticipate the rates will hold steady due to the increasingly dim prospects of an imminent end to the Iran conflict, keeping markets volatile and potentially prompting considerations for a hike in June or July.
“The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain current interest rates but deliver an aggressive message, considering a rate hike in June or July,” said Tetsuya Inoue, executive economist at Sony Financial Group, quoted on Sunday (26/4/2026).
“Corporate pricing behaviour has changed, so the BOJ must continue to monitor signs of second-round effects,” he added. “The board’s price forecast will provide clues on how tight the BOJ is on interest rate prospects,” he continued.
The central bank may revise its policy guidance, which promises to raise rates “in line with improvements in the economy and prices,” to better communicate its willingness to act flexibly against inflation risks stemming from the war, analysts said.
Nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark rate to 1.0% by the end of June.
It should be noted that Japan is one of the major contributors of investment to Indonesia. If interest rates rise, this would increase investment costs, potentially disrupting foreign fund flows from Japan to Indonesia.
The Fed Announcement
The Fed will announce its interest rate policy on 30 April 2026. According to FedWatch Tools, markets are confident that rates will stay at 3.75%. Markets will also focus on comments from Fed officials regarding future interest rate prospects.
The decision to hold rates is driven by ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly as inflation has not fully subsided to the 2% target, energy prices (oil) are rising due to global conflicts, and consumer spending is beginning to face pressure.
There are impacts from prolonged high interest rates, the “higher for longer” scenario, on US consumer spending and the broader economy.
First, expensive borrowing for consumption, such as mortgages, car loans, and credit cards used for daily shopping. As a result, consumption could be deferred.
Second, high cost-of-living pressures combined with rising energy prices and more expensive goods and services. This could squeeze consumer purchasing power.
US Q1 2026 GDP Advance Reading
According to the consensus compiled by Trading Economics, the initial reading of US economic growth will be 2.1% for the first quarter of 2026.
This growth is significantly higher than the previous quarter’s 0.5%. This represents strong growth despite the turmoil from the war in Iran.
Mining Companies’ Dividend Cum-Dates
Several mining companies will record their dividend cum-dates next week. As is known, mining issuers typically offer relatively large dividend amounts.
First, the cash dividend cum-date for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADMR) falls on 27 April 2026. Based on the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, ADMR will distribute a total dividend of US120millionorRp2.05trillion(exchangerate = RRp17, 000/US), with a 44.5% payout ratio from 2025 net profit. Therefore, investors will receive approximately Rp50 per share, to be paid on 6 May 2026.
Next is the cash dividend cum-date for PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) on 27 April 2026. Based on the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, ADRO will distribute a total dividend of US197.5millionorRp3trillion(exchangerate = RRp17, 000/US). Therefore, investors will receive approximately Rp100-106 per share, to be paid on 8 May 2026.
Furthermore, the cash dividend cum-date for PT Indotambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) falls on 27 April 2026. Based on the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, ITMG will distribute a total dividend of US$64.54 million, with investors receiving approximately Rp978 per share, to be paid on 19 May 2026.