Market Sentiment Next Week: Anxious Anticipation for Inflation and Labour Data
Entering the trading week bridging the end of March and the beginning of April 2026, market players will monitor a series of macroeconomic data releases from various regions. This series of data includes inflation indicators, trade activity, and employment conditions.
The actual figures released will be compared with market consensus and projections to gauge the direction of monetary policy from the relevant central banks, both from Bank Indonesia to the Federal Reserve, especially amid the current war dynamics.
The comparison between historical data and future estimates will form the basis for determining asset positions in global equities and commodities instruments that are still experiencing very high volatility.
Expectations for US Job Openings
The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for February is scheduled for release on 31 March 2026. In January, the number of job vacancies was recorded at 6.946 million.
For February, market consensus estimates a slight decline to 6.85 million, with a projection of 6.7 million. This projected decline indicates moderation in labour demand from the company side.
In the future, a trend of job openings lower than the pre-pandemic historical average confirms that the US labour market is heading towards a new equilibrium.
This condition can reduce inflationary pressure stemming from wage increases, which in turn can be a consideration for the Federal Reserve in evaluating its restrictive interest rate policy.
Relevance of China’s Manufacturing Sector Performance
From the Asian region, market sentiment also considers the release of the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for February, which was announced previously. The index was recorded at 52.1, higher than the market consensus of 51.9 and the estimate of 51.7, and up from January’s achievement of 50.3.
A figure above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is still in an expansion phase. In the future, data better than expectations provides an indication of stability in external demand, given that the Caixin survey is dominated by medium-sized export-oriented companies.
Stability in China’s manufacturing sector provides relatively positive sentiment towards global commodity price movements, including metal mining goods often imported by that country’s industrial sector.
Anticipation of Indonesia’s Inflation Data Release
At the domestic level, the Central Statistics Agency will release Indonesia’s inflation data for the March period on 1 April 2026. Based on February data, the annual inflation rate was at 4.76%, the highest since mid-2023.
For the March release, estimates suggest the inflation rate could reach 4.9%. This increase in estimates considers price trends in housing and food components.
In the future, persistent inflation above Bank Indonesia’s target range could limit room for monetary policy easing. This could potentially keep Government Securities yields at competitive levels to stem foreign capital outflows, but on the other hand, it could add burden to issuers sensitive to high interest rates in the domestic stock market.
Forecast for Indonesia’s Trade Balance Performance
Along with inflation data, Indonesia’s trade balance data for February will also be announced on 1 April 2026. In January, the trade surplus was recorded at USD 0.95 billion, down from previous months amid rising imports and declining oil and gas export values.
For February, projections estimate a surplus in the range of USD 1.2 billion. In the future, this moderate widening of the surplus indicates that net export performance still faces challenges from global commodity price dynamics and international trade tariff adjustments.
Nevertheless, consistent surplus achievements are still needed to maintain current account stability and provide support for the Rupiah exchange rate in facing global financial market volatility.
US Manufacturing Sector Indicators
US real sector activity will be measured through the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March on 1 April 2026. The index in February was recorded at 52.4.
For March, market consensus estimates the index at 52.3, while the projection is 52.0. This estimated figure indicates that the manufacturing sector is expected to still expand, but at a slower pace.
In the future, market attention will focus on the sub-index component of prices paid by producers, given that in the previous month there was an increase in cost burdens due to basic material prices and tariffs.
If the headline index falls but the price sub-index remains high, this could indicate tightening company margin efficiency, a sentiment that needs to be considered in the valuation of the US industrial sector equities.
Projections for US Non-Farm Payroll Additions
The main market focus at the end of next week will be on the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls employment data for March, scheduled for 3 April 2026.
February data showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, indicating weakness after downward revisions to previous months’ data. For March, market consensus estimates an addition of 48,000 jobs, with a projection of 50,000.
In the future, if the actual job addition is again below market expectations, this will confirm the trend of macroeconomic weakening.
Weak data will increase market confidence that the central bank