Mandiri Sekuritas Projects Year-End IHSG Could Hit 7,500, But...
Mandiri Sekuritas projects that the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) will hover around the 6,800 level by the end of 2026. Furthermore, in an optimistic or bull case scenario, the index has the potential to break through the 7,500 level.
Kresna Hutabarat, Head of Equity Research at Mandiri Sekuritas, stated that this optimism is based on solid issuer fundamentals, maintained profit growth, and the potential recovery of foreign investor fund flows in the second half of 2026.
“We project that by the end of 2026, the IHSG should be able to hover around 6,800,” Kresra said during the Mandiri Macro and Market Brief Q3 2026, held virtually on Thursday (3/9/2026).
According to him, the pressures shadowing the Indonesian stock market throughout the first half of 2026 were driven more by fund flow issues and sentiment rather than a weakening of fundamentals. The decline in the IHSG occurred amidst the positive growth of revenue and profit for major issuers, which even reached double digits. This condition serves as one of the reasons Mandiri Sekuritas maintains a positive outlook on the stock market for the second half of this year.
Kresna noted that selling pressure from foreign investors is beginning to show signs of easing. Net foreign outflows in July and August have shrunk, although year-to-date foreign capital outflows from the stock market remain quite significant. This improvement in sentiment is supported by the stabilisation of the Rupiah exchange rate as well as monetary and fiscal policy responses that are deemed increasingly aligned with market expectations.
Additionally, the direction of 10-year government bond yields is also a point of focus. The stability of bond yields is considered capable of helping to lower the risk-free rate, which is a key factor in stock valuation. Mandiri Sekuritas believes that the improvement of these indicators has the potential to drive a valuation re-rating in the Indonesian stock market.
In the base scenario, Mandiri Sekuritas projects the IHSG to be in the 6,800 range by year-end. However, if the equity risk premium improves more quickly and the risk-free rate moves lower, the IHSG has the opportunity to reach the 7,500 level.
“Our projection for the bull case, if there is a better equity risk premium, for instance reflected by an even lower risk-free rate, should be able to reach 7,500,” said Kresna.
Mandiri Sekuritas is also more optimistic regarding the IDX80. This index is projected to have a potential increase of approximately 8%-10% towards the 107 level, supported by earnings per share (EPS) growth which is expected to remain stable at around 11%.
Mandiri Sekuritas’ projections do not rely solely on macro factors and fund flows; the fundamental performance of issuers is also a primary pillar. Issuer profit growth in the first half of 2026 was recorded at approximately 12%. Interestingly, this growth is considered increasingly widespread and is not only supported by the banking sector. The natural resources, telecommunications, automotive, healthcare, and oil and gas sectors are also contributing to the growth in issuer profits.
Kresna believes this condition demonstrates the fundamental resilience of Indonesian industries in facing various macro pressures. For the second half of 2026, Mandandi Sekuritas is paying close attention to several sectors deemed to have attractive prospects. These sectors include gold, copper, nickel, oil and gas, healthcare, tobacco, telecommunications, and finance.