Mandiri Projects Return of Foreign Inflow Ahead of MSCI Review

Kresna Hutabarat, Head of Equity Research, Equity Strategist, and Banking Analyst at Mandiri Sekuritas, stated that foreign capital inflows have the potential to return to the Indonesian stock market gradually leading up to the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) review in November 2026.

These foreign inflows are expected to primarily target large-cap, or blue-chip, stocks. “We project that the MSCI assessment in November 2026 will have a positive impact on foreign inflows into Indonesian markets, especially through blue-chip issuers,” Kresna said during the Mandiri Macro & Market Brief Q3 2026 held virtually in Jakarta on Thursday.

Kresna noted that this potential positive sentiment is supported by capital market policy reforms being implemented by the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), and the government. These reforms are being carried out to enhance the investment attractiveness and governance of the Indonesian capital market.

Nevertheless, Kresna expects that foreign inflows will not arrive in large volumes immediately, but will instead occur gradually and moderately. “We also observe that such foreign inflows will happen in a gradual and moderate manner, considering the subsequent processes required by MSCI to further monitor the execution of Indonesia’s capital market policy reforms,” he explained.

The next index review announcement by MSCI is scheduled for 11 November 2026, with the resulting changes becoming effective from 1 December 2026. This review also serves as the deadline for MSCI’s monitoring of the Indonesian capital market regarding transparency reforms and the determination of public share portions (free float).