Malaysia's economy grows by 6.5% in 4th quarter of 2000
Malaysia's economy grows by 6.5% in 4th quarter of 2000
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Malaysia's economy grew by an estimated 6.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2000, slower than the 7.7 percent expansion in the preceding quarter, a Reuters poll of 10 research houses showed.
This will bring full year growth to 8.6 percent in 2000 -- the fastest growth since Malaysia recovered from a deep recession in 1998, the survey showed. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.8 percent in 1999.
Growth in 2001 is forecast to be 5.2 percent, down from a previous forecast of 6.3 percent, the survey found.
Some research houses put growth this year as low as four percent. The downward revision followed increasing worry about an economic slowdown in the United States, one of Malaysia's key trading partners.
The central Bank Negara is due to release fourth quarter GDP data on Wednesday.
"There is a moderation, but the numbers are OK," Manokaran Mottain, economist at SBB Securities, said, referring to the fourth quarter.
"Given the stronger-than-expected growth in the manufacturing output, we believe value-added of the manufacturing sector remained strong and continued to provide bulk of the growth in the fourth quarter," he said.
But exports, which had underpinned growth in the first nine months of 2000, were beginning to slow in the October-December quarter due to softer global demand for electronic products.
Malaysia's exports in December fell by 11.4 percent year-on- year because of falling electronics exports.
Exports of electronics contracted by 9.4 percent in December, the first shrinkage in nearly two years. Electronics accounted for nearly 60 percent of total exports.
GDP grew 11.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2000 and 8.5 percent in the second.
Economists expect growth to slow further in the first six months of this year as external demand for electronics and semiconductors weakens on the back of an anticipated U.S. economic slowdown.
The United States accounts for about 23 percent of Malaysia's exports.
"Growth rate will certainly be weaker this year," said Seow Choong Liang, head of research at stockbrokers K & N Kenanga.
"Internal demand is still quite weak while external demand has also gone weak."
Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin said last week that GDP for 2000 was expected to expand by more than eight percent.
But he said the government had not decided to revise its official projection of seven percent GDP growth for 2001.